South Pacific tropical cyclone season forecast

The tropical cyclone season runs from 1 November to 30 April

Average number of tropical cyclones likely in the South Pacific in 2024–25

  • The number of tropical cyclones expected during the 2024–25 South Pacific tropical cyclone season (November to April), 6 in the Eastern region and 4 in the Western region, is expected to be close to average.
  • The likelihood of severe (strong) tropical cyclones is higher than average, because of the warmer than average ocean temperatures forecast for the South Pacific region in the coming months.
  • Due to rising sea levels, the risk of storm surge from tropical cyclones is likely to continue to increase.
  • Tropical cyclones can affect Pacific Islands and coastal regions even when they remain well offshore.
  • Tropical lows that do not intensify into tropical cyclones, or lows that are the remnants of older tropical cyclones, can still produce damaging winds, widespread rainfall, and dangerous flooding.

The South Pacific tropical cyclone season typically runs from 1 November to 30 April, although tropical cyclones can, and do, form outside of these dates. All tropical cyclones that are active between 1 July and 30 June count toward the season's total. The average number of tropical cyclones during the season is 4 in the Western region and 6 in the Eastern region.

This forecast is based on the analysis of ENSO oceanic and atmospheric indicators over July to September 2024. The skill of this forecast is limited and the long-term trend towards fewer tropical cyclones can provide better guidance on the expected number of tropical cyclones.

Ocean temperatures are currently cooler that average in parts of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, close to average in the vicinity of the Date Line, and warmer than average in the South Pacific, south of 20° S.

 

Sea surface temperature anomaly outlook for October to December
Sea surface temperature anomalies long-range forecast for October to December 2024

Product code: IDCKSPTCSO