Tropical Climate Update

Tropical cyclone (TC) Alfred is likely to cross the coast between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Alfred (22U) formed in the Coral Sea and reached Category 1 strength on 23 February. It strengthened to a Category 4 (Severe) system on 27 February before weakening to Category 1 as it tracked south-eastwards.

As of 3 pm Tuesday 4 March, TC Alfred has re-intensified to Category 2 strength and is very likely to move towards the Queensland coast. If this occurs, TC Alfred is likely to make landfall between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast sometime between late Thursday 6 and early Friday 7 March.

A coastal crossing will have a hazardous impact over southern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales. Hazardous surf conditions have been observed and are expected to continue while TC Alfred is active. Damaging wind gusts, storm surge and heavy rainfall over coastal regions are expected to develop from Wednesday 5 March, with impacts increasing in severity as TC Alfred approaches the Australian coast.

This situation is rapidly evolving. For the latest tropical cyclone forecast information, including warnings and bulletins, visit our tropical cyclone web page.

Alfred was the 5th tropical cyclone in the Australian region for February, after Severe TC Tahlia, Severe TC Vince, Severe TC Zelia and Severe TC Bianca. The last time there were 5 TCs in a calendar month was January 2011.

Fortnightly rainfall will be influenced by TC Alfred and an equatorial Rossby wave

The monsoon trough has retreated north of the Australian continent and is currently weak. A ridge of high pressure has been located over southern and central Australia, with monsoon break conditions over northern Australia. Weekly rainfall totals were generally below average for the week ending 9 am on 3 March, with weekly totals of up to 50 mm recorded across northern parts of Cape York Peninsula, the Northern Territory's Top End (which also had isolated pockets of up to 100 mm) and Western Australia's Kimberley district.

Rainfall over northern Australia during the coming fortnight is likely to be influenced by the movement of TC Alfred and the passage of an equatorial Rossby wave.  Forecasts suggest that TC Alfred is likely to make landfall in south-east Queensland then move southwards into New South Wales, limiting its impact on rainfall over the Australian tropics. However, an increase in rainfall over northern and central Australia during mid-March is likely, associated with the re-activation of the near-equatorial trough and the development of tropical low-pressure systems near northern Australia.

Heatwave conditions over central and inland northern Australia

For the week ending 2 March, maximum temperatures were more than 4 °C above average for much of southern Queensland, southern and central Northern Territory and most of Western Australia, including temperatures 6 to 8 °C above average for some of these areas. Low-intensity to severe strength heatwave conditions were present for much of this region for the three days ending 3 March. Curtin Springs recorded 45.7 °C on 1 March, setting a new Northern Territory temperature record for March, surpassing the previous record of 45.0 °C (also at Curtin Springs) that was set on 11 March 2019. Many other stations in these areas also exceeded their March maximum temperature records

Heatwave conditions are expected to continue, with some intensification possible for the three-day period starting 3 March, and then conditions are expected to gradually ease.

For the latest heatwave forecast information, visit our heatwave web page.

Madden–Julian Oscillation forecast to be in the western Indian Ocean over the next fortnight

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is at moderate strength and currently located close to the tropical African longitudes. Forecasts from surveyed international models suggest it will likely make a slow move into the western Indian Ocean over the coming fortnight. Its likely strength over the fortnight is uncertain, with a range of strengths forecast by the models surveyed. When the MJO is in the African region and the western Indian Ocean, it is typically associated with the suppression of cloudiness and rainfall over northern Australia.