MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 16^th February 2000

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for Autumn 2000 (March to May)

Bureau of Meteorology issues first seasonal temperature outlook

After a decade of seasonal rainfall outlooks, the Bureau of Meteorology has added seasonal temperature outlooks to its service. Temperature outlooks have potential applications in such areas as bushfire control, water and electricity supply, as well as cropping and grazing. Importantly, they are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given in the outlooks.

This first seasonal temperature outlook from the National Climate Centre shows that for a large area of northern and eastern Australia, there is only a 25% to 35% chance that daily maximum temperatures averaged over autumn will be above normal - see first map below.

In contrast, through the west of Western Australia the chances of maximum temperatures being above average over the autumn months as a whole are mostly between 65 and 75%. For autumn however, while the outlook system has moderate to high skill in the north of both the N.T. and Queensland, skill is low elsewhere.

This pattern of probabilities is due mostly to the presence of abnormally warm water in the Indian Ocean, particularly west and southwest of Western Australia. It is also consistent with the seasonal rainfall outlook issued earlier today which shows increased chances of above average rainfall in Queensland and below average rainfall in western W.A.

There is a 70 to 80% chance that autumn minimum temperatures in Queensland and northern NSW will be above average - see second map below. The chances are also near 70% in the south and west of W.A.

Background Information:

• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean is warmer than normal close to Australia.
• This outlook represents a summary, more detail is available from the contact people or web site listed below.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Clare Mullen on (03) 9669 4714
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature anomalies for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature anomalies for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.