MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 15^th NOVEMBER 2000

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for Summer 2000/01 (Dec to Feb)

Warm summer favoured in the south

The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook for summer shows an increased likelihood of above average seasonal maximum temperatures over Victoria, Tasmania, southern NSW and much of South Australia (see first map below). The chances of a warmer than normal summer are generally around 60 to 70% in these areas. This means that if, for the sake of argument, we had the current climate patterns in another 10 summers, then in about 6 or 7 of them, maximum temperatures would be above the long-term median in these areas. In the other 3 or 4 the temperatures would be below.

On a cautionary note though, the outlooks have only low to moderate skill in these regions. The highest skill for summer is in the southern half of Queensland where the probability in a few spots is around 40%. This means that a cooler than average summer is favoured here with a chance of 60%. In other parts of the country, the probabilities are close to 50% and the outlook skill is generally low.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures hows an increased likelihood of warmer than normal summer nights in the southern half of W.A., north and east Qld, and the north of the N.T. (see second map below). The chances in these regions are mostly in the 60 to 70% range, so 6 or 7 years out of 10 would be likely to follow this pattern. The chances are mostly close to 50% in other areas.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean is warmer than average, whilst the Pacific temperatures have remained close to average. The Indian Ocean has had the most impact on the outlook probabilities.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Bill Wright on (03) 9669 4781

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.