MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 12th OCTOBER 2000
Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for November 2000 to January 2001
Odds favour warm season over large areas
The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook for November-January shows chances exceeding 60% for above average seasonal maximum temperatures over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The highest probabilities of around 70% occur in the southeast (see first map below). The outlooks have moderate skill in the eastern states and S.A. and in the east of the N.T. at this time of year, but generally low skill in areas further west.
The chances of warmer than average maximum temperatures gradually drop further below 50% approaching the west coast of W.A., reaching about 35% at their lowest. This implies a cooler than average season is the more likely outcome in the west of W.A.
The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is very similar to the maximum temperature outlook. In other words, the odds favour warmer than average nights in eastern and central areas, but cooler than average in the far west (see second map below). The highest values of 70 to 75% occur in both the southeast of the country and north Queensland. In contrast the probabilities are about 35 to 40% in the west of W.A. The outlook skill for minimum temperatures is moderate to high in most areas.
The Bureau of Meteorology is hosting a workshop, CLI-MANAGE, in Albury from 23-25 October, and places are still open for anyone wishing to attend. Participants will learn, and discuss, how climate information can assist their decision-making in climate-sensitive industries, such as agriculture. For more information please contact Linda Sampson on (03) 9669 4072.
For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:
Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527