MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 12^th OCTOBER 2000

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for November 2000 to January 2001

Odds favour warm season over large areas

The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook for November-January shows chances exceeding 60% for above average seasonal maximum temperatures over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The highest probabilities of around 70% occur in the southeast (see first map below). The outlooks have moderate skill in the eastern states and S.A. and in the east of the N.T. at this time of year, but generally low skill in areas further west.

The chances of warmer than average maximum temperatures gradually drop further below 50% approaching the west coast of W.A., reaching about 35% at their lowest. This implies a cooler than average season is the more likely outcome in the west of W.A.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is very similar to the maximum temperature outlook. In other words, the odds favour warmer than average nights in eastern and central areas, but cooler than average in the far west (see second map below). The highest values of 70 to 75% occur in both the southeast of the country and north Queensland. In contrast the probabilities are about 35 to 40% in the west of W.A. The outlook skill for minimum temperatures is moderate to high in most areas.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• September was a warm month across most of the country, with record monthly average maximum temperatures in parts of central Australia, southern Queensland and northern NSW.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean cooled a little last month but remains warmer than average, whilst the Pacific temperatures have remained close to average. The Indian Ocean has had the most impact on the outlook probabilities.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

The Bureau of Meteorology is hosting a workshop, CLI-MANAGE, in Albury from 23-25 October, and places are still open for anyone wishing to attend. Participants will learn, and discuss, how climate information can assist their decision-making in climate-sensitive industries, such as agriculture. For more information please contact Linda Sampson on (03) 9669 4072.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085
Bill Wright on (03) 9669 4781

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.