South Eastern Area High Seas Forecast

IDY10210
SECURITE
 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
SOUTHEASTERN AREA: 28S/50S, 129E/170E
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING 1100 UTC 19 APRIL 2014
 
PLEASE BE AWARE 
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

 
Part 1 Warnings
Melbourne Storm Force Wind Warning 2 issued 191808UTC: 
Area bounded by 50S130E 47S132E 45S138E 47S154E 50S157E 50S130E.
 
Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC
Refer to latest warnings.

Ridge 37S129E 33S138E 38S149E 50S154E, forecast 41S129E to high [1] 1016 hPa
near 41S133E to 36S140E to high [2] 1017 hPa near 31S156E to 50S159E at
200600UTC, and 40S129E 42S141E 35S148E to high [2] 1018 hPa near 32S158E 37S163E
50S167E at 201800UTC.

Trough developing near 31S125E 34S129E 32S134E at 200600UTC, forecast near
31S128E to low [1] 1004 hPa near 35S131E to 36S140E at 201800UTC.

Cold front [1] 38S129E 42S138E 50S143E, forecast 39S140E 42S149E 50S152E at
190600UTC, and 39S149E 41S156E 44S160E 50S162E at 201800UTC.

Cold front [2] 28S158E 35S171E to low [2] 998 hPa near 41S169E, forecast 28S161E
32S170E at 200600UTC and east of area by 201800UTC.

Low [3] 986 hPa near 48S167E, forecast 988 hPa near 49S171E at 200600UTC moving
further east of area by 201800UTC.

Cold front [3] west of area near 42S117E 45S123E 50S128E by 201800UTC.
 
Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.

Within 120nm of ridge and 240nm of highs:
Variable winds below 20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

Remainder north of ridge, west of 140E:
Northerly quarter winds below 20 knots tending easterly quarter south of
developing 
trough with slight to moderate seas. Winds becoming clockwise and increasing
15/25 knots within 180nm of low [1] by 201800UTC with seas rising moderate to
rough. Moderate swell.

Remainder north and east of ridge:
SW quarter winds 15/25 knots reaching 30 knots at times east of 160E, south of
34S.
Winds becoming clockwise within 120nm of low [2] and within 180nm of low [3].
Winds shifting NW quarter 15/25 knots east of cold front [2]. Moderate to rough
seas.
Moderate to heavy swell.

Remainder south and west of ridge, outside warning area:
NW quarter winds 20/30 knots east of cold front [1] shifting SW quarter west of
front [1]. Winds tending W quarter 15/25 knots within 120nm of longitude line
135E at 190600UTC and 144E at 201800UTC with winds becoming NW quarter 20/30
knots remainder west of this longitude and east of cold front [3]. Wind speeds
grading to 25/33 knots within 120nm of warning area. Moderate to rough seas.
Moderate to heavy swell.

Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 180nm of cold
fronts and within 240nm of lows. Isolated showers remainder south of
ridge and away from ridge . Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation.
 
WEATHER MELBOURNE
 
The next routine forecast will be issued at 2200  UTC 19 April 2014