Qld Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2003, issued 16th September 2003

Above average falls more likely for much of Queensland

The Bureau's rainfall outlook for the December quarter shows that wetter conditions are favoured in the northeast and west of the country. This outlook is largely the result of higher than average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For the October to December period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 60 and 70% over the whole State with the exception of far northern Cape York, and the area southeast of a line from Gladstone to St George (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of 10 are expected to be wetter than average across most of Queensland, with about 3 out of 10 being drier.

probability of exceeding median rainfall - click on the map for a larger version of the map

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During October to December, history shows this influence to be moderate to high across most of Queensland. An exception is the southeast of the State where the influence is weak or very weak (see background information).

The tropical Indian Ocean is currently warmer than average, whilst the Pacific is showing near normal temperatures. For more detail see the El Niño Wrap-Up. The excess warmth in the Indian Ocean has had the greater influence on the overall pattern of probabilities.

August's value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was –2, five points below the July value of +3. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 13th September was –1.

 

Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th OCTOBER 2003.

August 2003 rainfall in historical perspective

June to August 2003 rainfall in historical perspective

 

Background Information