Mixed December quarter rainfall outlook

The national outlook for rainfall over the December quarter (October to December) shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds favouring wetter than normal conditions over much of the north and west of the continent. It should be noted though, that the December quarter is a seasonally dry time of year in northwest WA, with heavy rain being uncommon. Conversely, there is a moderate shift in the odds favouring drier conditions in southeastern Australia, including Tasmania.

The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across Australia is mainly a result of continued warmth in the central and southeastern Indian Ocean, especially off the west coast of WA.

The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for October to December are between 70 and 75% for central Queensland and western parts of WA, rising to 75 to 80% in the Gascoyne region of WA (see map). Over much of the rest of central to western WA the odds for exceeding the median rainfall are between 60 to 70%, as they are over northern NSW, the eastern NT and most remaining areas of Queensland. This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven years are expected to be wetter than average over these regions, while about three or four years are drier.

In contrast, the chances of exceeding median rainfall for October to December are between 30 and 40% across Tasmania, southern Victoria (except east Gippsland) and southeast SA. In coastal regions of southwest Victoria the chances drop a little below 30%. So over these parts of southeastern Australia there is a 60 to 70% chance of below average falls over the December quarter.

Across the rest of the country, including northern Victoria, southern NSW, much of SA and eastern WA, the chances of exceeding the median rainfall for October to December are between 40 and 60%, meaning that above average falls are about as equally likely as below average totals in these regions.

Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the October to December period, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent over much of the country (see background information).

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral. There has been some slight cooling at the surface and slightly stronger cooling of the subsurface in the central Pacific recently. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has responded to this cooling and has risen to a value of approximately +17 for the 30 days ending 22nd September. Computer models indicate that neutral conditions are likely to continue for the next few seasons. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on any developments please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.

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Regional versions of this media release are available: | Northern Aust | Southeastern Aust | WA |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate Services Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 28^th October 2008

Corresponding temperature outlook

August 2008 rainfall in historical perspective

June to August 2008 rainfall in historical perspective

Background Information

• The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.

• This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/SClimate.shtml).

• Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

• Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below –10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 23 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/).