Seasonal Climate Outlook Archive

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MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 16^th FEBRUARY 2000

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Rainfall probabilities for Autumn 2000 (March to May)

Mixed Autumn rainfall outlook

The National Climate Centre's latest outlook for autumn rainfall shows more than a 70% chance of above average rainfall in north Queensland - see map.

However, in south-west Western Australia, chances are much reduced - only 25 to 35% chance of above average rainfall. For other areas of the country, the skill of the outlook system is low for this period, so forecasters have reduced confidence in these estimates. For this reason, the above 70% probabilities in western NSW-central South Australia, and the 35 to 40% chances in Tasmania and southern Victoria should be treated with more caution.

There was little change in the temperatures of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean during January indicating that the Pacific La Ni�a pattern has reached maturity. This is in line with most computer models which predict a weakening of this Pacific La Ni�a pattern during the forecast period. In the past, this pattern has often, but not always, been associated with above average rainfall in eastern and northern Australia.

Background Information:

This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean is much warmer than normal close to Australia and is the main cause of the probabilities shown on the map.
The January Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +5.1, somewhat lower than the +13 recorded in December. Sustained high (positive) SOI values indicate La Ni�a.
Rainfall has been above average across much of the country for the past six months - a situation that is consistent with a maturing Pacific La Ni�a pattern.
Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

More information on this outlook is available during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Clare Mullen on (03) 9669 4296
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

January 2000 rainfall - Decile Distribution.

November 1999 to January 2000 rainfall - Decile Distribution.

probability of exceeding median seasonal rainfall

Click on the map for full resolution.

Information on tropical cyclones

Information on tropical cyclones

The tropical cyclone season around northern Australia extends from November to May. The average number of cyclones per season is 9.4 (mean from 1949/50 season to 1993/94 season), with a standard deviation of 3.4. Cyclone activity in this region is related to the El Ni�o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, with fewer than normal cyclones during El Ni�o episodes, and slightly more during La Ni�a episodes. Below is a map showing the extreme bounds of the Australian Tropical Cyclone Region (Australia's area of responsibilty).

*Frequently Asked Questions*
Q: WHAT ARE THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY'S SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOKS? A:General statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from rainfall and sea surface temperature records. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. Q: WHAT DO WE MEAN BY "WETTER OR DRIER THAN AVERAGE, OR "WARMER OR COOLER THAN AVERAGE""? A:Being above or below the median rainfall, average maximum temperature, or average minimum temperature for the three-month period. The median is a useful measure of "normal" rainfall. In the long term, rainfall is above median in one half of years, and below median in the other half. For example, from July to September at Mackay in Queensland, one-half of 3-month rainfall totals have been below 80mm, and one-half have been above. If rainfall was above 80mm in that period it would be "wetter than average" or above median. Over the long haul there is a 50% chance of this occurring. In terms of odds this is even money. Note that the *average maximum temperature* is the average of all the daily highest temperatures for the period. Similarly, the *average minimum temperature* is the average of all the daily lowest temperatures for the period Q: HOW ACCURATE ARE THE OUTLOOKS? A: In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the eventual outcome (above or below median) is correctly given the higher chance about 70 to 80% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct. Q: WILL CATEGORICAL OUTLOOKS EVER BE ISSUED? (Eg. It WILL be drier than average.) A: Very unlikely. There is a certain level of natural variability in the climate which is chaotic and unpredictable. This is particularly the case with rainfall. For example, rainfall in a season can be significantly above average in one region, and significantly below average less than 50km away. Q: HOW SHOULD THE OUTLOOKS BE USED? A: As another tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks will outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: WHAT ARE THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY'S SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOKS?

A:General statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from rainfall and sea surface temperature records. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period.

Q: WHAT DO WE MEAN BY "WETTER OR DRIER THAN AVERAGE, OR "WARMER OR COOLER THAN AVERAGE""?

A:Being above or below the median rainfall, average maximum temperature, or average minimum temperature for the three-month period.
The median is a useful measure of "normal" rainfall. In the long term, rainfall is above median in one half of years, and below median in the other half.
For example, from July to September at Mackay in Queensland, one-half of 3-month rainfall totals have been below 80mm, and one-half have been above. If rainfall was above 80mm in that period it would be "wetter than average" or above median. Over the long haul there is a 50% chance of this occurring. In terms of odds this is even money.
Note that the average maximum temperature is the average of all the daily highest temperatures for the period.
Similarly, the average minimum temperature is the average of all the daily lowest temperatures for the period

Q: HOW ACCURATE ARE THE OUTLOOKS?

A: In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the eventual outcome (above or below median) is correctly given the higher chance about 70 to 80% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

Q: WILL CATEGORICAL OUTLOOKS EVER BE ISSUED? (Eg. It WILL be drier than average.)

A: Very unlikely. There is a certain level of natural variability in the climate which is chaotic and unpredictable. This is particularly the case with rainfall. For example, rainfall in a season can be significantly above average in one region, and significantly below average less than 50km away.

Q: HOW SHOULD THE OUTLOOKS BE USED?

A: As another tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks will outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

*Definitions and Explanations....*
THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Ni�o or La Ni�a events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A strongly negative SOI (below -10) is characteristic of El Ni�o, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A strongly positive SOI (above +10) is characteristic of La Ni�a, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. El Niño & La Niña El Ni�o translates from Spanish as "the boy-child", and refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Ni�a translates from Spanish as "the girl-child", and refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The term has recently become the conventional label for the opposite of El Ni�o. See http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/elnino.shtml for more on SOI and El Ni�o.

Definitions and Explanations....

THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.

The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Ni�o or La Ni�a events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks.

A strongly negative SOI (below -10) is characteristic of El Ni�o, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north.

A strongly positive SOI (above +10) is characteristic of La Ni�a, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season.

El Niño & La Niña

El Ni�o translates from Spanish as "the boy-child", and refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Ni�a translates from Spanish as "the girl-child", and refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The term has recently become the conventional label for the opposite of El Ni�o.

See http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/elnino.shtml for more on SOI and El Ni�o.

Seasonal Climate Outlook Archive

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Rainfall probabilities for Autumn 2000 (March to May)

Mixed Autumn rainfall outlook

Graphical Views