Seasonal Climate Outlook Rainfall Archive

Frequently Asked Questions

Three-month Rainfall Probabilities

MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 15th March 2001

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Rainfall probabilities for April to June 2001

Mixed rainfall probabilities

The National Climate Centre's outlook for total April to June rainfall shows a mixed pattern of probabilities. Above average falls are more likely in South Australia and northwest Victoria, but in northern NSW and southeast Queensland seasonal totals have a greater chance of being below the long-term median.

Across central S.A. and northwest Victoria, the chances for above average (median) totals are around 60 to 70% (see map below).

This means that in years with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 out of every 10 are wetter than the long-term seasonal median, whilst about 3 or 4 out of 10 are drier. It also suggests a potential increase in the number of "northwest cloudbands".

Conversely, over the northwest slopes and plains in NSW and adjacent Darling Downs in Queensland, above average seasonal totals have only about a 35 to 40% chance of occurring. So in similar situations about 6 out of every 10 years are drier than average, whilst about 4 out of 10 are wetter.

The outlook scheme has moderate skill in these regions. In other parts of the country, the skill is generally low and the outlook chances are close to the baseline level of 50%.

Background Information:

  • This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The central Indian Ocean is cooler than average, has been cooling strongly and has had the most effect on the outlook probabilities. The tropical Pacific has been warming slowly but still maintains some of the features of a weak La Niņa pattern.
  • At this stage, most international computer models suggest warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the next 6 months, but the majority do not predict an El Niņo.
  • The February Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +12, slightly above the +9 recorded in January. These values are consistent with a weak La Niņa.
  • This outlook represents a summary, more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
  • Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

More information on this outlook is available during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Bill Wright on (03) 9669 4781
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085.

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

February 2001 rainfall - Decile Distribution.

Summer 2000/01 rainfall - Decile Distribution.

probability of exceeding median seasonal rainfall
Click on the map for full resolution.

Frequently Asked Questions

A:General statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from rainfall and sea surface temperature records. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period.

A:Being above or below the median rainfall, average maximum temperature, or average minimum temperature for the three-month period.
The median is a useful measure of "normal" rainfall. In the long term, rainfall is above median in one half of years, and below median in the other half.
For example, from July to September at Mackay in Queensland, one-half of 3-month rainfall totals have been below 80mm, and one-half have been above. If rainfall was above 80mm in that period it would be "wetter than average" or above median. Over the long haul there is a 50% chance of this occurring. In terms of odds this is even money.
Note that the average maximum temperature is the average of all the daily highest temperatures for the period.
Similarly, the average minimum temperature is the average of all the daily lowest temperatures for the period

A: In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the eventual outcome (above or below median) is correctly given the higher chance about 70 to 80% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

A: Very unlikely. There is a certain level of natural variability in the climate which is chaotic and unpredictable. This is particularly the case with rainfall. For example, rainfall in a season can be significantly above average in one region, and significantly below average less than 50km away.

A: As another tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks will outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

Definitions and Explanations....

THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.

The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niņo or La Niņa events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks.

A strongly negative SOI (below -10) is characteristic of El Niņo, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north.

A strongly positive SOI (above +10) is characteristic of La Niņa, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season.

El Niño & La Niña

El Niņo translates from Spanish as "the boy-child", and refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Niņa translates from Spanish as "the girl-child", and refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The term has recently become the conventional label for the opposite of El Niņo.

See for more on SOI and El Niņo.