Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Winter 2004, issued 18th May 2004

Neutral odds for Tasmanian winter temperatures

The Bureau's winter temperature outlook shows moderate to large swings in the odds towards above average maximum and minimum temperatures in the north and west of the country. In Tasmania however, the odds are neutral for increased winter warmth. This outlook pattern is the result of recent temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the June to August period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are generally close to 55% over Tasmania (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about five winters out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across the State, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During winter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be only weakly consistent over most of Tasmania (see background information).

As far as overnight conditions are concerned, the chances of above average winter minimum temperatures are close to 50% across Tasmania.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in winter to be only weakly or very weakly consistent over Tasmania.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th JUNE 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for February to April 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for February to April 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information