SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2004, issued 16th September 2004

Above average temperatures favoured in south and east SA

The odds have swung in favour of above average maximum temperatures across eastern and southern parts of SA for the October to December period, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been most heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures exceed 60% across much of SA, excluding the northwest corner. The probabilities increase to between 65 and 70% southeast of a line from Ceduna to the SA/NSW/Qld tri-state border (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven October to December periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in southern and eastern SA, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

In the northwest of the State, the chances are between 50 and 60%, thereby showing no strong swing towards either warmer or cooler conditions.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of SA but only weakly consistent in the far southwest of the state (see background information).

The chances of overnight temperatures being above average are between 50 and 60% across SA, thereby showing no strong trend towards warmer or cooler conditions for the final three months of 2004.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during October to December to be moderate to strongly consistent in the north of SA, but only weakly consistent in the far southeast.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th OCTOBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information