WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2004, issued 16th September 2004

Increased likelihood of warm conditions in WA's south and west

The odds have swung in favour of above average maximum temperatures across much of western and southern WA for the December quarter, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been most heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 60 and 65% across much of the Gascoyne and Goldfields districts, and all the southwestern districts (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six October to December periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across these areas of Western Australia, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Further north, the chances of a warmer than average December quarter are near 50% thereby not showing any strong trend towards either warmer or cooler conditions.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across large parts of WA, except in an area in the east of the State, that extends into the southwest NT (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal across the southern half of WA for the final three months of 2004. The chances of above average minimum temperatures range from 60% to nearly 80% in these areas, with the highest probabilities evident in the Gascoyne, Goldfields, Central Wheat Belt and Great Southern districts.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during October to December to be moderate to strongly consistent in the southern half of WA but only weakly consistent in northern parts.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th OCTOBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information