The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been most
heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the
The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 60 and
65% across much of the Gascoyne and Goldfields districts, and all the
southwestern districts (see map). So in
years with ocean patterns like the current, about six October
to December periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average
across these areas of Western Australia, with about four out of ten
Further north, the chances of a warmer than average December quarter are
near 50% thereby not showing any strong trend towards either warmer or
Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the
influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal
temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures
to be moderately consistent across large parts of WA, except in an
area in the east of the State, that extends into the southwest NT
(see background information).
Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal
across the southern half of WA for the final three months of 2004. The
chances of above average minimum temperatures range from 60% to nearly
80% in these areas, with the highest probabilities evident in the Gascoyne,
Goldfields, Central Wheat Belt and Great Southern districts.
History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during
October to December to be moderate to strongly consistent in the southern
half of WA but only weakly consistent in northern parts.