For the late winter to mid-spring period (Aug-Oct), the chance that seasonal maximum
temperatures will be higher than the median is above 60% across Queensland, with the exception of
the far north of the State (see map). The chances are above 70% over most southern parts, and
even exceed 80% in a few small areas.
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight August to October quarters out
of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across most of Queensland,
with about two to four out of ten being cooler.
The chances of a warmer than average season are in the 50 to 60% range in the far north
of the State.
The outlook pattern for maximum temperatures has been more heavily influenced by recent
higher than average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the
influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal
temperatures. During August to October, history shows this influence on
maximum temperatures to be moderately to highly consistent across
the southern two-thirds of Queensland, but only weakly consistent
in the far north (see background information).
The chance that seasonal minimum temperatures will be higher than the median, is above 60%
south of a line from the far north of the NT border to Fraser Island.
The probabilities are between 70 and 75% in southern inland Queensland, but in
the north and parts of the east of the State, the chances of above normal overnight temperatures
averaged over August to October are between 50 and 60%.
History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during August
to October to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland.