Warmer than average spring indicated for parts of southeastern Australia

The Seasonal Climate Outlook for maximum temperatures averaged over spring (September to November) shows a moderate shift in the odds towards warmer than normal conditions over the southeast of the mainland.

The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across southeastern Australia is largely a result of a warming trend in the Indian Ocean. Although there has been some warming in recent months in the equatorial Pacific, it is generally in a neutral state, and not contributing to any significant shifts in the odds for the temperature outlook in southeastern Australia. Averaged over September to November, the chances of above average maximum temperatures are mainly between 55 and 60% over southeastern Australia, increasing to 60 to 65% in the southeast of SA, as well as in western and central Victoria (see map). So for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, average spring daytime temperatures are higher than normal in about six, especially in western Victoria and southeast SA, while about four out of ten are cooler. Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During spring, history shows this effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of NSW and South Australia. However, over far southern NSW, Victoria, and most of Tasmania confidence is only weakly consistent so this outlook should be used with caution in those areas (see background information). There is a moderate to strong shift in the odds towards warmer average spring minimum temperatures, with nights favoured to be warmer than normal across southeastern Australia, except for the northeast half of NSW where the outlook is neutral (see map). The chances of increased overnight warmth (averaged over the coming three months) are between 60 and 80% in SA, Victoria and the southwest half of NSW. This means for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight would be expected to be warmer than average in terms of overnight temperatures averaged over spring. In Tasmania the probabilities are lower at between 60 to 70%. History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures during spring to be moderately consistent over SA and western parts of NSW. However, over much of eastern and southern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, the effect is generally only weakly consistent, so this outlook needs to be used with caution in these areas.

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

More information on this outlook is available Monday to Friday from 9.00am to 5.00pm local time by contacting the Bureau's Climate Services sections in Queensland, NSW, SA, Victoria and Tasmania at the following numbers:

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 25^th September 2008

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for May to July 2008 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for May to July 2008 - base period 1961-1990

Background Information

• The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.

• This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/SClimate.shtml).

• Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

• Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below –10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 23 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/).