Southeastern Aust Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Winter 2009, issued 26th May 2009

Warmer winter days favoured in southeastern Australia

For southeastern Australia, the outlook for maximum temperatures averaged over winter (June to August) shows warmer than normal days are favoured, especially so in South Australia.

The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across Australia is a result of recent warm conditions in the Indian Ocean and an increasing level of warmth in the Pacific. Of the two, the influence from the Indian Ocean is greater for this particular outlook.

The chance that the average winter maximum temperature will exceed the long-term median maximum temperature is around 60 to 65% for most of NSW, Victoria and SA (see map). This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six years would be expected to be warmer than average in terms of daytime temperatures averaged over winter, while about four would be expected to be cooler. The chances of a warm season are even higher (65 to 70%) in western SA, but a slightly lower (55 to 60%) along the east coast of NSW and in most of Tasmania.

Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During winter, history shows this effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of NSW, SA and southern Tasmania (see background information). However, confidence levels are weak to very weak in the southeast of SA, western Victoria and northern Tasmania, so this outlook should be used with caution in those areas.

The outlook for winter mean minimum temperatures shows a 60 to 65% chance of a seasonal average above the long-term median minimum temperature in northern NSW. In remaining areas the probabilities are mostly in the 50 to 60% range.

History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures in winter to be moderately consistent over NSW and the northeast quarter of SA. However, over western and southern SA, most of Victoria and Tasmania, the influence is only weakly or very weakly consistent.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 

More information on this outlook is available Monday to Friday from 9.00am to 5.00pm local time by contacting the Bureau's Climate Services sections in Queensland, NSW, SA, Victoria and Tasmania at the following numbers:

Sydney -(02) 9296 1555
Adelaide -(08) 8366 2664
Melbourne -(03) 9669 4949
Hobart -(03) 6221 2043
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 23rd June 2009

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for February to April 2009 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for February to April 2009 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information

  • The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.

  • This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (Seasonal Climate Outlook Products).

  • Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

  • Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

  • The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below –10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 25 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (El Niño - Detailed Australian Analysis).