The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across southeast Australia is a result
of recent warm conditions in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
The chances of exceeding the median maximum temperature during spring
(September to November) are between 60% and 70% for mainland southeast Australia,
and between 55 and 60% over Tasmania.
This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current,
about six or seven years would be expected to have warmer than average
daytime temperatures over spring, while about three or four would be
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect
Australian temperatures. During spring (September to November), history shows this effect on
maximum temperatures to be moderate to strongly consistent over most of SA, northern half of
NSW and small parts of the north coast of Tasmania (see background information).
However, confidence is lower where the effect is weakly to very weakly consistent
in remaining areas - namely parts of southern NSW, all of Victoria and most of Tasmania.
In areas where outlook confidence is not high, caution should be used when
interpreting these outlooks.
The outlook for spring mean minimum temperatures shows 60 to 70% chances of
exceeding the median minimum temperature for much of SA, inland NSW and most of Victoria.
Higher odds of 70 to 80% are forecast for northwestern SA.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures during spring to be
moderate to strongly consistent over most of SA, and parts of inland NSW.
However, over much of eastern and southern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, the
effect is generally only weakly consistent, so this outlook needs to be used with
caution in these areas.