Forecast issued at 5:10 am EDT on Monday 22 December 2014.
A high pressure system over the central Tasman Sea will drift further eastwards on Monday. A low pressure trough over western Victoria will remain slow moving on Monday before extending down into western Bass Strait early Tuesday then moving slowly eastwards over central parts of the strait during the day and the east on Tuesday night. The trough will contract inland to sit over northeastern Victoria on Wednesday while a narrow high pressure ridge extends across Tasmania. The low pressure trough will deepen over eastern Victoria on Thursday, Christmas Day, as a cold front approaches from the west, reaching western Bass Strait by the afternoon. The two systems should interact to produce a low pressure system just east of Bass Strait on the morning of Boxing day.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
- Variable below 10 knots becoming easterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then turning north to northeasterly in the evening.
- Mostly sunny morning. 40% chance of showers during this afternoon and early evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and early evening.
Tuesday 23 December
- North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning then becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon.
- Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Wednesday 24 December
- Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots moderating 10 to 15 knots during the morning and tending southerly in the afternoon. Wind tending southwesterly around 5 knots during the evening.
- Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Thursday 25 December
- West to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots early afternoon then decreasing to 5 knots during the evening.
- Cloudy. 20% chance of showers.
Please be awareWind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:40 pm EDT Monday.