Forecast issued at 5:10 am EDT on Monday 22 December 2014.
A high pressure system over the central Tasman Sea will drift further eastwards on Monday. A low pressure trough over western Victoria will remain slow moving on Monday before extending down into western Bass Strait early Tuesday then moving slowly eastwards over central parts of the strait during the day and the east on Tuesday night. The trough will contract inland to sit over northeastern Victoria on Wednesday while a narrow high pressure ridge extends across Tasmania. The low pressure trough will deepen over eastern Victoria on Thursday, Christmas Day, as a cold front approaches from the west, reaching western Bass Strait by the afternoon. The two systems should interact to produce a low pressure system just east of Bass Strait on the morning of Boxing day.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
- South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots in the south in the late afternoon. Winds turning east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
- Below 1 metre.
- Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower later tonight.
Tuesday 23 December
- North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northwesterly around dawn and increasing to 15 to 20 knots then shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day and locally reaching 25 knots late in the afternoon and evening.
- Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
- Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Wednesday 24 December
- Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
- Around 1 metre decreasing to half a metre at night.
- Partly cloudy. 30% chance of showers.
Thursday 25 December
- Southerly 5 to 10 knots tending southwesterly during the morning. Wind tending southerly and increasing 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
- Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
- Partly cloudy.
Please be awareWind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:40 pm EDT Monday.