Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for June to August shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of southern and eastern Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of the north.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary 

Below average June to August rainfall likely for parts of southern and eastern Australia

June to August

• Rainfall for the 3-month period from June to August is likely to be below average (60% to 80% chance) for south-eastern Queensland, eastern Tasmania, most of New South Wales, Victoria, southern and eastern South Australia, and south-western Western Australia.
• Rainfall is likely to be above average (60% to 80% chance) for parts of western Tasmania.
• While there is an increased chance of above average rainfall across the far north, this forecast period falls within the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north, except for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, typically receives very little rainfall. Therefore, only small amounts of rainfall, often less than 20 mm, can be enough to exceed seasonal averages.
• For most other areas, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• The dry signal over the three‑month period is heavily driven by stronger probabilities of below‑average rainfall emerging later in the season.
• Over south-west and south-east Australia, this rainfall forecast from the Bureau's ACCESS-S model is generally consistent with forecasts from most international models, which also show drier than average rainfall. However, the extent of the dry signal is generally larger in other models, extending to cover a larger part of southern and eastern Australia than ACCESS-S.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights across much of Australia

June to August

• Maximum temperatures for June to August are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia except in parts of the north.

• For much of southern Australia, there is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance), with the highest chances (over 70% chance) across Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales, southern Queensland, southern South Australia, as well as western parts of Western Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 60% chance) for Tasmania, Victoria, much of eastern and southern New South Wales, the south-east Queensland, southern South Australia, as well much of Western Australia.
• These temperature forecasts from ACCESS-S are generally consistent with most international models, although ACCESS-S predicts higher chances of warmer than average temperatures, especially over parts of northern Australia.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of June to August days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending 17 May 2026 shows waters are close to average around much of Australia, with the main exception off the NSW coast and extending around much of Tasmania, where SSTs are up to 3 °C above average.
• SST forecasts for June to August indicate average to warmer-than-average waters around much of Australia, with temperatures up to 2 °C warmer than average in the Tasman Sea. Warmer waters can increase atmospheric moisture and energy, raising the potential for more intense rainfall and weather systems when conditions are favourable.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral although there are signs of El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with models suggesting a likely transition during winter. However, an atmospheric response is required for an El Niño to be considered established, with atmospheric indicators currently at neutral levels.
• Forecasts indicate this event will likely be at least moderate in strength, with the possibility of a strong El Niño, based on the level of warming in the central tropical Pacific (relative Nino3.4 index). A strong El Niño signal in the Nino3.4 region does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's climate.