Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for April to June shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of Australia, and above average in far north Queensland.
• Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia but below average in parts of the tropical north.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for the west and east, but cooler in parts of the north-west.

Help us improve and shape our future long-range forecasts through a short survey.

Rainfall—Summary

Below average April to June rainfall likely for most of Australia

April to June

• Rainfall over April to June as a whole is likely to be below average (60% to more than 80% chance) for most of Australia, except for parts of far northern Australia and for coastal New South Wales and Queensland, where there are roughly equal chances of above, below or near-average rainfall.
• A small area of far north Queensland is likely to have above average April to June rainfall (60% to 75% chance).
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (over 40% chance) for parts of southern and interior Australia.
• May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north typically receives very little rainfall. Over these areas, average monthly rainfall totals for May and June are usually less than 5 mm.
• In the nearer term, rainfall is likely to be above average (60% to more than 80%) across the far tropical north during the remainder of March.
• This 3-month rainfall forecast from ACCESS-S is generally consistent with forecasts from most international models, however, some models predict lower chances of below average rainfall for the southern two-thirds of Australia.

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of April to June records between 1981 and 2018

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days across much of Australia; mixed outlook for overnight temperatures

April to June

• Maximum temperatures for April to June are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across the southern two-thirds of Australia.
• For northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, maximum temperatures are likely to be cooler than average (60% to more than 80% chance).
• The southern half of Australia has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² (over 50% chance), with the strongest chances in western parts of Western Australia and eastern New South Wales (over 80% chance).
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across much of the eastern states, eastern parts of the Northern Territory, and most of Western Australia.
• For parts of north-west Australia, minimum temperatures are likely to be cooler than average (60% to 70% chance).
• For most remaining inland areas of Australia, neither warmer nor cooler than average minimum temperatures are favoured.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 50% chance) for parts of Western Australia's south and west, and the coastal strip extending from southern Queensland to eastern Victoria.
• This temperature forecast from ACCESS-S is generally consistent with forecasts from most international models. Some models predict higher chances of below average temperatures across northern Australia, while ACCESS-S predicts higher chances of above average temperatures across the southern two-thirds of Australia.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of April to June days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during February 2026 were the 10th warmest on record in the Australian region and the third warmest for the global average.
• The SST analysis for the week ending 15 March 2026 shows cooler than average waters (up to 2 °C below average) to the north and west of Australia following increased tropical activity. Warmer than average waters (up to 2 °C above average) persist off the east coast of Australia, especially along the New South Wales coast. Elsewhere in the Australian region, SSTs are mostly close to average.
• Forecasts for April to June indicate warmer-than-average SSTs are likely for much of the region to the south and east of Australia, with the highest anomalies extending into the Tasman Sea. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• The 2025–26 La Niña is close to its end. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have eased to be within ENSO-neutral levels (−0.80 to +0.80 °C) since mid-February. Recent warming in the sub-surface suggests further decline of the event is likely in the coming weeks.
• All models indicate further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely, with a shift to El Niño possible by the end of winter. However, there is variation on the timing of this transition with some suggesting development as early as May, while others delay onset until late winter. The large spread of outcomes across models reflects the low predictability at long lead times typical for this time of year, with reliability expected to improve as autumn progresses.
• Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has remained above the positive threshold for 8 consecutive weeks, the index has been heavily influenced by tropical activity in the east of the Indian Ocean and is therefore not considered a positive IOD event. It is unlikely to strongly influence Australian rainfall at this time of year. Model forecasts expect the IOD to return to neutral in mid-autumn 2026.