Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for January to March shows:

• A weak or mixed signal for rainfall, with roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier 3 months for most of Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely be above average across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually warm nights for the northern half of the country.
• The next issue of the monthly and seasonal forecast maps will be Thursday 8 January; weekly and fortnightly forecasts will continue to be issued daily.

Help us improve and shape our future long-range forecasts through a short survey.

Rainfall—Summary

Weak or mixed forecast signal for rainfall over much of Australia

January to March

• For much of Australia, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall over the 3 months to March.
• However, rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) for scattered parts of Western Australia and southern Tasmania.
• Above average rainfall is likely (60 to 70% chance) for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and eastern Queensland.
• This rainfall forecast from ACCESS-S is generally consistent with forecasts from other international models with good agreement over northern Queensland.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia

January to March

• Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• Some areas have an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance), including much of Tasmania, and parts of Western Australia and Victoria.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across most of Australia, with slightly lower chances (60 to 80% chance) of being above average across parts of southern Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across much of the northern half of Australia, and in the west, with the strongest chances in the tropical north (over 80% chance).
• These temperature forecasts from ACCESS-S are generally consistent with most international models, although ACCESS-S forecasts higher chances of warmer temperatures than some models over parts of the interior and southern Australia.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of January to March days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with November 2025 the fourth warmest on record.
• SSTs for the week ending 14 December 2025 show warmer than average waters off Australia's east and west coasts and cooler waters to the south-east. SSTs have cooled significantly in the Coral Sea over the last week.
• Forecasts for January to March show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely across much of the Australian region, with notable warming predicted in the Tasman Sea. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific. Observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been consistent with La Niña conditions since mid-to-late September.
• The Bureau's model currently predicts that temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to remain at La Niña levels until early 2026 before returning to neutral. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.
• The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has been weakening since late October and is near its end. The Bureau's model predicts a return to a neutral IOD during December, which is consistent with most international models.