Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for January to March shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average in parts of south-east Australia, with roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months for most of the country.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to very likely be above average across most of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

Weak or mixed forecast signal for rainfall over much of Australia

January to March

• For much of Australia, there is no clear signal in the rainfall forecast, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall over the three months.
• However, rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) across Tasmania and small areas in the mainland's south-east and parts of central Australia, with the strongest chances in western Tasmania.
• Above average rainfall is slightly favoured (60 to 70% chance) for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and south-eastern Queensland.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia

January to March

• Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• Some areas have an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance), including parts of western and central Australia, much of and Tasmania, as well as some parts of inland New South Wales.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across most of Australia, with slightly lower chances (60 to 80% chance) of being above average across parts of southern Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across much of Western Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland as well as northern parts of New South Wales and South Australia, with the strongest chances in the tropical north (over 70% chance).

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of January to March days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with October 2025 the third warmest on record.
• SSTs for the week ending 7 December 2025 show warmer than average waters along the east and west coasts, and to Australia's south-west. A broad area exceeding 1.2 °C above average is present from the Arafura to the Coral seas and along parts of the east coast. SSTs were cooler than average off the south-eastern coasts.
• Forecasts for January to March show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely across much of the Australian region, especially in parts of the east. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific. Observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been consistent with La Niña conditions since mid-to-late September.
• The Bureau's model currently predicts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain at La Niña levels until early 2026 before returning to neutral. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.
• The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has been weakening since late October and is near its end. The Bureau's model predicts a return to a neutral IOD during December, which is consistent with most international models.