Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for March to May shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of the south, and above average in parts of northern Queensland.
• Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average across much of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

Below average autumn rainfall likely for much of the south

March to May

• Autumn rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) for parts of southern and western Australia. The drier than average forecast signal strengthens and spreads across southern and inland parts of Australia toward the end of the outlook period.
• Rainfall is likely to be above average (60 to 70% chance) for parts of Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, with the strongest signal during March.
• For the rest of northern Australia, the rainfall forecast does not strongly favour a particular outcome, meaning there are roughly equal chances that March to May rainfall will be above, below or close to average.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average autumn days and nights likely across most of Australia

March to May

• Maximum temperatures are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• The chance of above average maximum temperatures is closer to 50% for parts of northern Queensland, reflecting the forecast for wetter conditions and increased cloud cover.
• Much of Australia has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance), with the strongest chances in north-eastern Tasmania, and far western and eastern Australia (over 70% chance).
• Minimum temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia, with lower chances (closer to 50%) in some inland parts of south-eastern Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) for parts of eastern and western Australia, including Tasmania.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of March to May days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region were the sixth warmest on record for January. Global SSTs were the fourth warmest on record for January 2025.
• The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending 1 February 2026 shows warmer than average waters persist off much of Western Australia. SSTs are cooler than average in the Tasman Sea and in the Arafura and Timor seas to Australia's north.
• Forecasts for March to May show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely across much of the Australian region, but closer to average off parts of the southern and northern Australian coasts. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• La Niña is easing in the tropical Pacific. The Bureau's model predicts warming to continue in the tropical Pacific in the coming months with a neutral ENSO state favoured through to at least late autumn. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD is typically inactive from December to April. Model forecasts expect the IOD to remain neutral until at least the end of autumn 2026.