Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for April to June shows:

• rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for the period across most of eastern, central and southern Australia, and above average across parts of the north
• warmer than average days are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures across the country
• warmer than average nights are very likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.

Rainfall—Summary

April to June rainfall expected to be in the typical range for the season for most of Australia

April to June

• Rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for April to June for most of eastern, central and southern Australia.
• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average for northern Australia, including the north of the Northern Territory, Queensland's Cape York Peninsula and the far north of Western Australia.
• Much of the above average signal in the north is from April, suggesting a wetter end to the northern wet season.
• Parts of south-eastern South Australia and western Victoria are likely (60 to 70% chance) to see above-average rainfall during April to June. Given the rainfall deficiencies over the past 12 months, the predicted rainfall during April to June is unlikely to significantly ease the long-term dry conditions.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average April to June days and nights likely across Australia

April to June

• Above average maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ across Australia, particularly across Tasmania, with more than 70% chance.
• Above average minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ across Australia, particularly for large parts of the south-east, including Tasmania; the north of Cape York Peninsula; and the west of Western Australia, where there is more than 70% chance.
• The likelihood of unusually high daytime and overnight temperatures has decreased compared to the April to June forecast issued in early March.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of April to June days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts for up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates the evolution in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability of the weather. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region during February 2025 were the warmest on record for all Februarys since records began in 1900. Monthly SSTs in the Australian region have been the warmest on record for each month between October 2024 and February 2025.
• The latest weekly SST analysis shows warmer than average waters around most of the Australian coastline, with anomalies reaching up to 3 °C above average off WA's Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts. Positive anomalies have returned in the north after some cooling in early February. SSTs in the Coral Sea have cooled in recent weeks due to the influence of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
• Warmer than average SSTs provide increased atmospheric moisture and energy that can influence the severity of tropical storms and weather systems and support the genesis of tropical cyclones.
• Global SSTs remain substantially above average. Daily SSTs for 2025 to date have been the second warmest on record for this time of year, only slightly cooler than the same time in 2024.
• The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. The Bureau's model predicts ENSO will remain neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) until at least August. This is consistent with all international models surveyed.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little association with Australian climate from December to April.