Climate outlook for August to October
Climate outlook overview
- The August to October climate outlook, issued 11 July 2019, suggests a drier than average three months is likely for large parts of Australia.
- August to October daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average virtually nationwide, with very high chances for the northern half of the country.
- Nights are likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia. However, parts of the southern mainland have roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler nights. With more cloud-free days and nights expected, there is an increased risk of frost in susceptible areas.
- Climate influences include forecast positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions and an ENSO-neutral tropical Pacific Ocean.
August to October likely drier for north, east and southwest
- A drier than average August to October is likely for large parts of the country, including the northern half of Australia, southwest WA, most of NSW, Victoria, southeast SA and northern Tasmania.
- The month of August is likely to be drier for the far southwest of WA, the northern NT and northern and eastern Queensland, although it should be noted that August is typically a dry month for the tropical north, apart from Queensland's east coast. The rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.
- Historical outlook accuracy for August to October is moderate to high for most of the country but low in parts of southeast Australia. See map for details.
Warmer August to October days likely nationwide
- August to October days are likely to be warmer than average for almost all of Australia. Chances are very high (greater than 80%) for the northern half of the country, inland southern WA, most of NSW and northeast Victoria.
- Nights are also likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia. However, parts of the southern mainland and northern Queensland have roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler nights. Dry soils and the forecast for drier than average conditions mean more cloud-free nights than average are likely, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas.
- Historical accuracy for August to October maximum temperatures is moderate to high for most of Australia, except for parts of the Pilbara in WA. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for most of Australia but patchy across the southeast quarter and western WA. See map for more details.
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain neutral for the remainder of winter and spring.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast for the remainder of winter and spring. A positive IOD typically brings below average rainfall to much of central and southern Australia during winter-spring. The positive IOD is likely to be the dominant climate driver for Australia during the next three months.
- In addition to the natural drivers such as ENSO and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
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