Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for October to December shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average across much of the west and central regions, below average in the south-east.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Above average rainfall likely for much of the west and central regions, below average in the south-east.

October to December

• October to December rainfall is likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Western Australia, South Australia, the southern two-thirds of the Northern Territory, western Queensland, and parts of northern New South Wales. During this outlook period, northern Australia typically experiences increasing humidity, storms, and showers.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ (50 to 80% chance) across much of southern and central parts of Western Australia and parts of western Southern Australia. Select your location on the map for more localised information.
• Below average rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for much of the south-east and parts of the far north.
• For much of eastern Australia and parts of the north, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall for the three months to December.
• For October alone, there is a broader dry signal with rainfall likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be below average for much of eastern and northern Australia and in far south-west Western Australia.
• The ACCESS-S rainfall forecast is consistent with international guidance, although there is slight variation between models in the likelihood of above average rainfall.

¹Unusually low/high rainfall is that in the driest/wettest 20% of October to December records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures likely across much of Australia for the remainder of 2026

October to December

• October to December maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia except in some parts of the tropical north.
• There is an increased likelihood (over 60% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across the southern half of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80%) over parts of south-west Western Australia, and most of south-eastern Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 60% chance) across much of Australia, including a broad area where the likelihood exceeds 80%.
• The ACCESS-S forecast for temperatures is consistent with international models. There is some variation in the likelihood of above average temperatures over the Top End and Cape York Peninsula.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of October to December days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• El Niño is well established and continues to strengthen.
• All models, including the bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming through the southern hemisphere spring, with El Niño likely peaking in late spring or summer as a very strong event.
• A strong El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's rainfall and temperature; ENSO is only one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Models continue to suggest a positive IOD could develop during the southern hemisphere spring, although there is still uncertainty in the strength and duration of the event.
• The SST analysis for the week ending 13 September 2026 shows mostly warmer than average waters in near coastal areas around most of Australia and mostly near average temperatures to the north (excluding some northern coastal areas). Waters are especially warm along the southern New South Wales and eastern and southern Tasmania coasts.
• Most of the Australian region is forecast to be warmer than average over the coming months, particularly to Australia's west and in the Coral Sea. Warmer waters can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy that can fuel storms and rain systems, increasing potential for high intensity rainfall.
• More broadly, global (60°S to 60°N) SSTs for August 2026 were the warmest on record, at 1.04 °C above the 1961–1990 average in the NOAA ERSSTv5 dataset.