The next 4 weeks
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Climate outlook for November to February
Climate outlook overview
- November to January rainfall is likely to be above average across much of Australia, except west coast Tasmania.
- Daytime temperatures across November to January are likely to be warmer than average across parts of south-east, central, and western Australia, as well as along the northern coastline.
- Night-time temperatures across November to January are very likely to be warmer than average across much of Australia.
- La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific. La Niña typically increases the likelihood of above average rainfall across much of Australia during spring and early summer.
November to January wetter than average for nearly all of Australia
- November to January is likely to be wetter than average for nearly all of Australia (greater than 65% chance in most areas), but drier than average for parts of western Tasmania.
- November rainfall is likely (greater than 65% in many areas) to be above average across most of the eastern two-thirds of the Australian mainland. Remaining parts of Australia have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average November apart from west coast Tasmania, where drier than average conditions are more likely.
- The fortnight 2-15 November is likely to be wetter than average for northwest SA, southwest NT and the WA interior (greater than 75% chance), as well as parts of the Queensland and NSW coasts (greater than 60% chance). The far southwest of both WA and Victoria, as well as western Tasmania are more likely to experience drier than average conditions.
- While the outlooks indicate wetter than average conditions, southern parts of Australia are entering into their drier season, so rainfall is not likely to be sufficient to relieve long-term rainfall deficits. This rainfall will also not necessarily lower the risk of days with elevated fire danger.
Warmer days for much of the south-east, the far north and parts of the interior during November to January; warmer nights very likely for all of Australia
- For the fortnight 2-15 November, average daytime temperatures are likely to be above the long-term average for most parts of Australia apart from southwest WA, where roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days are more likely. On average, nights during this period are likely to be warmer than the long-term average across all of Australia.
- The average maximum temperature for November to January is likely to be higher than the long-term average for Tasmania, Victoria, northern and western WA, much of the NT and northern SA, and along the coast and towards the southwest of Queensland. However, it is likely to be cooler than the long-term average for south coast WA, eastern NSW, and far southeast Queensland.
- The average minimum temperature is very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be higher than the long-term average across Australia during November to January.
- The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña, meaning La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Recent observations show a slight strengthening in the pattern.
- Model outlooks suggest the La Niña is likely to persist until at least the end of the 2020-21 summer.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The majority of models indicate that the IOD will remain neutral over the coming months, though warmer waters to the north of Australia may be favourable for enhancing rainfall over the continent.
- The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is expected to be neutral over the next fortnight but generally positive values of SAM are expected over the 2020-21 summer. La Niña tends to favour positive SAM during the spring to summer months, which typically enhances the wet signal of La Niña in parts of eastern Australia, although western Tasmania is often drier.
- Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.4 °C since 1910, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
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