Climate outlook for April to June
Climate outlook overview
- The April to June climate outlook, issued 14 March 2019, indicates a drier than average three months is likely for the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, and scattered parts of southeast Australia. The rest of the country generally shows no strong tendency towards a wetter or drier than average three months.
- For April, northern and eastern Queensland are likely to have a drier than average month, while inland southern WA is likely to be wetter than average.
- Warmer than average days and nights are likely for almost all of Australia for April to June. For daytime temperatures, the chances of being warmer than median are very high (greater than 80%) for northern and eastern Australia.
- The Bureau's climate model, as well as the majority of other international climate models, suggest the tropical Pacific will warm to El Niño levels during autumn. However, if an El Niño develops, its drying influence upon eastern Australia is weaker in autumn, but strengthens in the winter months. There are also sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean that may influence the later part of the forecast period. See the Climate Influences section for more information.
Near-equal chances of a wetter or drier three months for most of Australia
- April to June is likely to be drier than average over the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, and central to northern parts of Victoria, extending into southern NSW. Elsewhere there is no strong shift towards a significantly wetter or drier than average three months.
- April is likely to be drier than average across northern and eastern Queensland, extending into northern NSW. Inland southern WA is likely to have a wetter than average April.
- Historical outlook accuracy for April to June is moderate for most of the country but low across southeast WA, northern SA, much of NSW and southern Queensland. See map for details.
Warmer than average conditions likely to continue
- Warmer than average days and nights are very likely for most of Australia for April to June. These warm outlooks follow Australia's warmest summer on record.
- Historical accuracy for April to June maximum temperatures is moderate to high across most of Australia, except southeast WA and southwest SA where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for most of the country, but patchy across southwest WA, southeast Australia and parts of the north. See map for more details.
- The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, but recent warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean has increased the chance of El Niño developing during autumn. However, it's worth noting that El Niño typically has less of a drying influence for Australia in autumn than it does during winter or spring.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to remain neutral through autumn, although is tending towards positive values towards the end of the forecast period.
- A significant area of higher than normal atmospheric pressure is likely to remain over the Coral and Tasman sea regions. This may reduce cloudiness in the north, and deflect some fronts poleward in the south.
- While southern Australia shows little signal towards wetter or drier conditions, the past two to three decades have seen a decline in autumn rainfall across southern Australia. For example, since 1990, 24 of the 29 years have had rainfall totals in southeast Australia below the historical (1961-1990) average.
- In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
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