POAMA Great Barrier Reef SSTA Forecasts

Great Barrier Reef Index Forecast

IDYOC047

The following plot shows the latest forecast for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Index from the Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal prediction system POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia). The GBR Index is defined as the spatial average of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Great Barrier Reef region and has been shown to be a useful indicator of mean conditions in the area.

This forecast is generated operationally by the National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) and updated online every day. The forecast presented shows the ensemble mean (black), with the distribution by quartiles of the ensemble composed of the last 30 daily forecasts. Overlaid are the individual daily forecasts (grey). The shading indicates upper and lower climatological terciles from the POAMA v1.5 hindcasts. SSTA are calculated as the difference between SST values and the 1982-2006 climatology, the monthly long term mean SST.

• POAMA GBR SSTA Hindcasts Archive
• POAMA GBR SSTA Real-time Forecasts Archive
• POAMA Experimental SSTA Forecasts in Google Earth

Further reading

• Spillman C. and Alves O., 2009: Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs, 28, 197-206.
• Spillman C.M., Alves O., and Hudson D.A., 2010: Real-time seasonal SST predictions for the Great Barrier Reef during the summer of 2009/2010. CAWCR Res. Lett., 4, 11-19.
• Spillman C.M., Alves O., Hudson D.A. and Charles A.N., 2009: POAMA SST predictions for the Great Barrier Reef: Summer 2008/2009. CAWCR Res. Lett., 2, 30-34.

For further information visit POAMA group.

Please be aware that all POAMA forecasts are subject to the Bureau of Meteorology's copyright and disclaimer.