From 3 November 2011, the Bureau is upgrading the POAMA model to POAMA-2. This upgrade will result in forecasts being updated every 2 weeks. The Operations Bulletin provides detailed information on the change.
These pages provide information on sea surface temperatures for monitoring coral bleaching events in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.
Great Barrier Reef Index Forecast
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The following plot shows the latest forecast for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Index from the Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal prediction system POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia). The GBR Index is defined as the spatial average of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Great Barrier Reef region and has been shown to be a useful indicator of mean conditions in the area.
This forecast is generated operationally by the National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) and updated online every two weeks. The forecast presented shows the ensemble mean (black), with the distribution by quartiles of the ensemble composed of the latest 30 member multi-model forecasts. Overlaid are the individual daily forecasts (grey). SSTA are calculated as the difference between sea surface temperatures (SST) values and the 1982-2010 climatology, the monthly long term mean SST. To view the forecast as a series of pie charts, see the POAMA-2 experimental pages listed below.
- POAMA-2 Great Barrier Reef SSTA Hindcasts Archive
- POAMA-2 Great Barrier Reef SSTA Real-time Forecasts Archive
- POAMA-2 Experimental SSTA Forecasts in Google Earth
For further information visit POAMA group.
Please be aware that all POAMA forecasts are subject to the Bureau of Meteorology's copyright and disclaimer.
