Coral Bleaching

These pages provide information on sea surface temperatures for monitoring coral bleaching events in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

Great Barrier Reef Index Forecast


The following plot shows the latest forecast for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Index from the Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal prediction system POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia). The GBR Index is defined as the spatial average of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Great Barrier Reef region and has been shown to be a useful indicator of mean conditions in the area.

Monthly GBR SSTA Index

This forecast is generated operationally by the Bureau's National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) and updated online twice a week. The forecast presented shows the ensemble mean (black), with the distribution by quartiles of the ensemble composed of 33 members. Also shown are the individual ensemble members (grey). SSTA are calculated as the difference between sea surface temperature (SST) values and the 1982-2010 climatology, the monthly long term mean SST. To view the forecast as a series of pie charts, see the POAMA experimental pages listed below.

For further information visit POAMA group.

Please be aware that all POAMA forecasts are subject to the Bureau of Meteorology's copyright and disclaimer.