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Great Barrier Reef SST Anomaly Forecasts

SST Anomaly Forecasts

The following plots shows the latest sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly forecasts from POAMA for the coming months in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia.

Forecasts are generated from POAMA V1.5b at lead times of 0-5 months for the region. Plots are updated daily and are based on the ensemble mean of the last 30 forecasts. SST anomalies are calculated as the difference between SST values and the climatology, the monthly long term mean SST. To evaluate the accuracy of model forecasts and provide a measure of the skill of the model, hindcasts of SST anomalies are compared to observed SST anomalies for the same period.Skill is calculated by correlating model anomalies with observed anomalies in both space and time. For further details see Spillman and Alves (2009).

GBR Index Ensemble Distribution

The following plot shows the distribution by quartiles of the ensemble composed of the last 30 forecasts for SST anomalies averaged over the Great Barrier Reef region. The ensemble distribution gives a sense of the certainty of the forecast, and of the relative probabilities of various outcomes. The shading indicates upper and lower climatological terciles from the POAMA V1.5b hindcasts.

GBR SSTA Forecast Skill

GBR SSTA Hindcasts

GBR SSTA Real-time Archive

For more information on coral bleaching and climate change impacts on reefs refer to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority.

References:

• Hoegh-Guldberg O., 1999. Coral bleaching, climate change and the future of the world's coral reefs. Review, Marine and Freshwater Research, 50: 839-866.
• Spillman C. and Alves O., 2009. Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs.

For further information: visit POAMA group