Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Use of this website
All products available on this site are experimental only and do not currently form part of the Bureau's standard services in any way. Access to the products is made available for research purposes only and on the basis that users are fully aware that these products are still being tested and are subject to the Bureau's copyright and disclaimer policies.
These forecasts will normally be presented to the Bureau's monthly climate meeting and peer reviewed by at least two people within the Bureau's Water Division before they are released to the registered user website.
Experimental Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting
To evaluate the BJP modelling system, experimental predictions are being developed for a number of high priority catchments across Australia with the intention of later transitioning some of these from pilot projects to an operational system.
The Bureau and CSIRO started planning the Statistical Seasonal Forecasting project in January 2009. The project is part of the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) and is effectively the transformation of the research efforts of CSIRO into a Bureau operational seasonal forecasting service.
About Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Australian streamflows are among the most variable in the world. These streamflows are relied upon by a range of water managers and users, including irrigators, urban and rural water supply authorities, environmental managers and hydroelectricity generators. Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts will help water managers and key water users improve their water management and decision making capability.
You can learn more about the forecasts by watching the Seasonal Streamflow video or reading the product fact sheet.
Reliable Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for weeks to several months ahead can influence important decisions such as:
- water allocations
- cropping strategies
- water market planning
- environmental watering
- operating a diversified water supply scheme
- restricting water supply
- managing drought.
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts complement the Bureau seasonal rainfall outlook and seasonal temperature outlook.
The Bureau Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts rely on new statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, currently being developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) under the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA).
The statistical approach is based on the Bayesian Joint Probability modelling system. The model uses statistical relationships between climate indicators, past catchment conditions and historical rainfall and streamflow at a site to forecast its future streamflow.
With the dynamic modelling approach, future streamflows are forecast by applying climate predictions from global climate models to hydrological models. Further details on the dynamic modelling approach can be found in the Experimental evaluation of the dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasting approach.
All forecasts contain uncertainty due to a range of factors. Information on the amount of uncertainty associated with each forecast is provided to users by using probabilistic forecasts and historical assessments of forecast skill.
Forecast sites driven by user needs
The forecast sites have been selected based on user need, data availability and forecasts skill. The forecast sites include many important storages and irrigation areas in Victoria, NSW, the ACT and Queensland.
The following table describes the relationship between the forecast sites and downstream storages and irrigation areas. It also provides an indication of the use for the water in the storages and the stakeholder that has been involved in providing data and forecast verification.
| Forecast Site Description | Data Owner | Relationship to Storage/Irrigation Area | Water Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam | MDBA | Inflow to Hume Dam | Urban water supply, irrigation, environmental flow, hydro-electric power |
| Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam | MDBA | Inflow to Dartmouth Dam | Irrigation, domestic and stock, hydro-electric power |
| Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River | MDBA | Inflow to Yarrawonga Weir | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River | MDBA | Inflow to Yarrawonga Weir | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Gibbo River at Gibbo Park | MDBA | Inflow to Dartmouth Dam | Irrigation, domestic and stock, hydro-electric power |
| Total inflow to Lake Eildon | G-MW | Inflow to Lake Eildon | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir | G-MW | Inflow to Goulburn Weir | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Total inflow to Cairn Curran Reservoir | G-MW | Inflow to Cairn Curran Reservoir | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Total inflow to Lake Eppalock | G-MW | Inflow to Lake Eppalock | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Total inflow to Tullaroop Reservoir | G-MW | Inflow to Tullaroop Reservoir | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Total inflow to Lake Nillahcootie | G-MW | Inflow to Lake Nillahcootie | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Acheron River at Taggerty | DSE VIC | Inflow to Goulburn Weir | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Delatite River at Tonga Bridge | DSE VIC | Inflow to Lake Eildon | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Goulburn River at Dohertys | DSE VIC | Inflow to Lake Eildon | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie | DSE VIC | Inflow to Dartmouth Dam | Irrigation, domestic and stock, hydro-electric power |
| Murray River at Biggara | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Hume Dam | Urban water supply, irrigation, environmental flow, hydro-electric power |
| Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper (Kashmir) | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Burrinjuck Dam | Urban water supply, irrigation, environmental flow, hydro-electric power |
| Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara | DECCW NSW | Inflow to the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area | Irrigation |
| Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac | DECCW NSW | Inflow to the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area | Irrigation |
| Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd | DECCW NSW | Inflow to the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area | Irrigation |
| Cotter River at Gingera | ActewAGL | Inflow to Corin Dam | Water supply for Canberra |
| Queanbeyan River at Tinderry | ActewAGL | Inflow to Googong Dam | Water supply for Canberra |
| Gudgenby at Tennent | Environment ACT | Inflow to Googong Dam | Water supply for Canberra |
| Richmond River at Wiangaree | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Richmond River Estuary | Irrigation, domestic, stock and industry |
| Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Bootawa Dam | Irrigation, domestic, stock and industry |
| Shoalhaven River at Warri | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Tallowa Dam (also called Lake Yarrunga) | Hydro-electric power |
| Maragle Creek at Maragle | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Murray Irrigation Area | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Jingellic Creek at Jingellic | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Murray Irrigation Area | Irrigation, domestic, stock and industry |
| Muttama Creek at Coolac | DECCW NSW | Inflow to the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area | Irrigation |
| Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola | DECCW NSW | Inflow to the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area | Irrigation and stock |
| Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook | NSW OoW | Inflow to the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area | Irrigation and stock |
| Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Wyangala Dam | Irrigation and urban water supply |
| Halls Creek at Bingara | DECCW NSW | Inflow to the Gwydir Wetlands | Irrigation, stock and environmental flow |
| Turon River at Sofala | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Burrendong Dam | Hydro-electric power |
| Coxs River at Island Hill | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Warragamba Dam | The major water storage for Sydney, hydro-electric power |
| Abercrombie River at Abercrombie | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Wyangala Dam | Irrigation and urban water supply |
| Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing | DECCW NSW | Inflow a large area of irrigated agriculture | Irrigation |
| Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith | DECCW NSW | Inflow to the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area | Irrigation |
| Namoi River at North Cuerindi | DECCW NSW | Irrigation and urban water supply | |
| Barnard River at Barry | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Bootawa Dam | Irrigation, domestic, stock and industry |
| Tuross River at Tuross Vale | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Tuross Lake | Irrigation and oyster farming |
| Wollomombi River at Coninside | DECCW NSW | Inflow to Fattorini Dam | Urban water supply and grazing |
| Gwydir River at Yarrowyck | NSW OoW | Inflow to Copeton Dam | Irrigation, stock and domestic |
| Ovens River at Bright | DSE VIC | Inflow to Yarrawonga Weir | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Tambo River at Swifts Creek | DSE VIC | Inflow to Lake King | Irrigation, stock and environmental flow |
| Wonnangatta River at Waterford | DSE VIC | Inflow to Gippsland Lakes | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Latrobe River at Willow Grove | DSE VIC | Inflow to Lake Wellington | Industry and environmental flow |
| Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat | DSE VIC | Inflow to a large agricultural area | Irrigation and stock |
| Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South | DSE VIC | Inflow to agricultural area | Irrigation, domestic and stock |
| Barron River at Picnic Crossing | DERM | Inflow to Tinaroo Falls Dam | Irrigation, urban water supply and Barron Falls power station |
| Burdekin River at Sellheim | DERM | Inflow to Burdekin Falls Dam (also called Lake Dalrymple) | Irrigation, urban and industrial water supply |
| Herbert River at Abergowrie | DERM | Irrigation and urban water supply | |
| Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road | DERM | Inflow to Teddington Weir | Irrigation and urban water supply |
| Stanley River at Peachester | DERM | Inflow to Somerset Dam | Inflow to Wivenhoe Dam |
| Brisbane River at Gregors Creek | DERM | Inflow to Wivenhoe Dam | Urban water supply |
| Coen River at Coen Racecourse | DERM | Grazing | |
| Porcupine Creek at Mt Emu Plains | DERM | Inflow to Flinders Dam | Grazing |
| Diglum Creek at Marlua | DERM | Inflow to Awoonga Dam | Industrial and urban water supply |
| Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls | DERM | Irrigation and urban water supply | |
| Elizabeth Ck at Mt Surprise | DERM | Grazing | |
| Emu Creek at Emu Vale | DERM | Inflow to Talgai, Lemon Tree and Yarramolong Weirs | Grazing, horticulture, agriculture and town water |
| Burnett Ck at Upstream Maroon Dam | DERM | Inflow to Maroon Dam | Urban water supply and stock |
| Wild River at Silver Valley | DERM | Irrigation and urban water supply | |
| Coalseam Creek at Laura River | DERM | Irrigation | |
| Swan Ck at Swanfels | DERM | Inflow to Talgai, Lemon Tree and Yarramolong Weirs | Grazing, horticulture, agriculture and town water |
| Bloomfield River at China Camp | DERM | Irrigation and urban water supply | |
| Running Creek at Dieckmans Bridge | DERM | Inflow to Cedar Grove Weir and Bromelton Offstream Storage facility | Urban water supply |
| Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge | DERM | Irrigation | |
| Gregory River at Riversleigh | DERM | Stock | |
| McArthur River Upstream of Bailey's Grave | NRETAS | Irrigation and stock |
| Acronym | Organisation Name |
|---|---|
| DECCW NSW | Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water New South Wales |
| DSE VIC | Department of Sustainability and Environment Victoria |
| G-MW | Goulburn-Murray Water |
| MDBA | Murray-Darling Basin Authority |
| DERM | Department of Environment and Resource Management Queensland |
| NSW OoW | New South Wales Office of Water |
| Enviroment ACT | Environment and Sustainable Development Directorate |
| NRETAS | Department of Natural Resources, Environment and The Arts, Northern Territory |
