Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: December 2014–February 2015



  • Low streamflows more likely
  • Low streamflows recorded in November
  • The El Niño Southern Oscillation tracker status at ALERT level

Streamflow forecast - December to February


For the December 2014 to February 2015 forecast period, low and near-median streamflows are more likely at 42 and 4 locations respectively, of the 46 locations where skill is acceptable. High flows are not forecast at any location. Forecast skill scores for the December-February period are moderate for most locations. Due to very low skill scores, the forecast has not been issued at 28 locations. The monthly Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months and beyond.


Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.

New information video



Outlook video

Cape York Peninsula Northern Queensland Southern Queensland South Australia Northern New South Wales Southern New South Wales Victoria Northern Territory Map of Australian forecast sites.

Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for December 2014–February 2015

Tercile forecast for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam (High skill)Tercile forecast for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Murray River at Biggara (High skill)Tercile forecast for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Ovens River at Bright (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Acheron River at Taggerty (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Goulburn River at Dohertys (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tambo River at Swifts Creek (High skill)Tercile forecast for Wonnangatta River at Waterford (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Latrobe River at Willow Grove (High skill)Tercile forecast for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Lake Eildon (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Graceburn Creek inflow at Graceburn Weir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to O'Shannassy Reservoir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Upper Yarra Reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Thomson Reservoir (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Victorian catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for December 2014–February 2015

Tercile forecast for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara (High skill)Tercile forecast for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd (High skill)Tercile forecast for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook (High skill)Tercile forecast for Cotter River at Gingera (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gudgenby at Tennent (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Muttama Creek at Coolac (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola (High skill)Tercile forecast for Shoalhaven River at Warri (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic (High skill)Tercile forecast for Maragle Creek at Maragle (High skill)Tercile forecast for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tuross River at Tuross Vale (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for the Southern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for December 2014–February 2015

Tercile forecast for Richmond River at Wiangaree (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Halls Creek at Bingara (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Turon River at Sofala (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Namoi River at North Cuerindi (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Barnard River above Barry (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Wollomombi River at Coninside (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Coxs River at Island Hill (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Northern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for December 2014–February 2015

Tercile forecast for Bloomfield River at China Camp (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Wild River at Silver Valley (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Gregory River at Riversleigh (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Herbert River at Abergowrie (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Barron River at Picnic Crossing (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for December 2014–February 2015

Tercile forecast for Swan Creek at Swanfels (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Stanley River at Peachester (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Emu Creek at Emu Vale (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Southern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for December 2014–February 2015

Tercile forecast for Coen River at Coen Racecourse (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Coalseam Creek at Laura River (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Cape York Peninsula. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for December 2014–February 2015

Tercile forecast for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Territory. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours
  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.


November catchment conditions

Low November streamflows were recorded at 68 of 74 locations in eastern Australia. Near median streamflows were recorded at 6 locations. High streamflows were not recorded at any location.

November rainfall was below average through the eastern States and across the Top End, but above average across Western Australia and parts of western Queensland. The Murray-Darling basin received 51% below average rainfall for November. State-wide rainfall statistics and maps are now available online.

Climate influences

Many climate indicators remain close to El Niño thresholds, with climate model outlooks suggesting further intensification of conditions remains likely. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker status is currently at ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance that El Niño will be declared in the coming months. Whether or not an El Niño fully develops, a number of El Niño like impacts have already emerged. The climate outlook video explains how to interpret the climate outlook information to assist decision-making.


For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.


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