Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: August to October 2014



Near median flows more likely


Streamflow forecasts for the August to October period suggest near median streamflows are more likely at most locations. The monthly Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months and beyond.

Across eastern Australia, near median July streamflows were recorded at 24 of 74 locations. High streamflows were recorded at 30 locations, predominantly in Victoria, southern New-South Wales and northern Queensland. Low streamflows occurred at 20 locations, predominantly in north-eastern New-South-Wales and south-eastern Queensland. The chance of an El Niño developing in spring currently stands at 50%, a reduction from the previous few months. Consequently the chance of an El Niño has eased. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains negative.


Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.

New information video



Outlook video


Cape York Peninsula Northern Queensland Southern Queensland South Australia Northern New South Wales Southern New South Wales Victoria Northern Territory Map of Australian forecast sites.

Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for August to October 2014

Tercile forecast for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Murray River at Biggara (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Ovens River at Bright (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Acheron River at Taggerty (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Goulburn River at Dohertys (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Tambo River at Swifts Creek (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Wonnangatta River at Waterford (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Latrobe River at Willow Grove (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Lake Eildon (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Graceburn Creek inflow at Graceburn Weir (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to O'Shannassy Reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Upper Yarra Reservoir (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Thomson Reservoir (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Victorian catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for August to October 2014

Tercile forecast for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Cotter River at Gingera (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gudgenby at Tennent (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Muttama Creek at Coolac (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Shoalhaven River at Warri (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Maragle Creek at Maragle (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Tuross River at Tuross Vale (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for the Southern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for August to October 2014

Tercile forecast for Richmond River at Wiangaree (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Halls Creek at Bingara (High skill)Tercile forecast for Turon River at Sofala (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Namoi River at North Cuerindi (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Barnard River above Barry (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Wollomombi River at Coninside (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Coxs River at Island Hill (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for the Northern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for August to October 2014

Tercile forecast for Bloomfield River at China Camp (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Wild River at Silver Valley (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Gregory River at Riversleigh (High skill)Tercile forecast for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise (High skill)Tercile forecast for Burdekin River at Sellheim (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Herbert River at Abergowrie (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Barron River at Picnic Crossing (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for August to October 2014

Tercile forecast for Swan Creek at Swanfels (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Stanley River at Peachester (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Emu Creek at Emu Vale (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for Southern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for August to October 2014

Tercile forecast for Coen River at Coen Racecourse (High skill)Tercile forecast for Coalseam Creek at Laura River (High skill)Map of forecast sites for Cape York Peninsula. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for August to October 2014

Tercile forecast for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave (High skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Territory. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours
  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.


Moderate forecast skill for most locations

The forecast skill scores for the August to October period are high for 6 out of 74 locations, moderate for 50 locations, low for 15 locations and very low for 3 locations. Forecasts that have low skill are displayed as faded pie charts on the maps. Skill scores for these forecasts exceed those obtained from using the historical record to calculate probabilities (historical reference). The forecasts with very low skill are displayed as grey pie charts on the maps.

July catchment conditions

Across eastern Australia, July rainfall was generally average to below average, with scattered regions showing very much below average rainfall.

Across Victoria rainfall totals were either average or below average, with above average rainfall recorded in small regions of the state. A Victorian state-wide average rainfall of 16.9 mm was recorded, 24% below the July historical average. New South Wales recorded a state-wide average rainfall of 14.1 mm, 64% below the historical average of 39.4 mm. This is the driest July since 2002. Most of the State recorded below-average falls with large areas of New South Wales recording less than a fifth of their average rainfall for July. The rain that did fall was mostly restricted to the ranges and southern New South Wales. Queensland rainfall was below average across the whole state, with only small parts of the tropical north and Gulf Country recording above-average monthly totals. Apart from areas along the east coast and in southern Queensland, most of the state recorded little or no rainfall. State-wide, the rainfall was 2.60 mm and 86% below the long-term average for July. Mean rainfall across the Northern Territory was 9.5 mm, 38% above the long-term mean for July. Above-average rainfall predominantly fell in the south of the Northern Territory. The Murray-Darling Basin recorded a July rainfall total of 22.4 mm, 56% below the historical average of 40 mm. Nationally, rainfall was 32% below average for July.

More information about July weather and climate conditions can be found in the climate summaries for Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Northern Territory.

High July streamflows were recorded at 24 of the 74 locations and low streamflows were recorded at 20 locations. Near median streamflows were recorded at 30 locations.

Streamflow forecasts for August to October

Near median and high streamflows for the August to October forecast period are more likely at 28 and 25 locations, respectively, of the 72 locations where skill is acceptable. Low flows are more likely at 19 locations. The forecast is not issued due to very low skill scores at 2 locations.

The chance of an El Niño developing in the spring currently stands at 50%, a reduction from the previous few months, but still remains higher than the normal likelihood of an event. The ENSO Tracker is set at an El Niño WATCH status, shifting from an ALERT status that persisted over the past few months. Consequently the chance of an El Niño has eased. A slight majority of models indicate that an El Niño event this spring remains likely.

A drier than normal season is more likely for northern Queensland, and parts of south-eastern Australia. A wetter than normal season is more likely for a small part of central Australia. There is an equal chance of a wetter or drier season for the remaining parts of eastern Australia in the coming season.


For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.


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