Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: June–August 2015

  • Near-median streamflows more likely in southeastern and northwestern Australia
  • Low streamflows more likely at northeastern coastal locations
  • High May streamflows recorded at southeastern coastal locations
  • ENSO Tracker status: EL NIÑO

Streamflow forecast for June-August

For the June to August 2015 forecast period, near-median streamflows are more likely at 32 of 86 locations. Low flows are more likely at 28 locations and high flows at 26 locations. Median and high flows are most likely in southeastern coastal areas where deep soil moisture is above average and East Coast Lows delivered rainfall in April. Forecast skill is moderate across southern Australia and high across northern Australia. Due to very low model skill, forecasts have not been issued at 15 locations and we suggest using climatology for these.

Use the map below to zoom and pan to view the forecast locations. Then click on a pie chart to go directly to the latest forecast.

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.

New information video

Outlook video

  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

May catchment conditions

High flows were recorded at 37 of 100 forecast locations across Australia. These were predominantly observed across coastal regions of southeastern Australia. Low flows were recorded at 32 locations and near-median flows were recorded at 31 locations. Observed streamflow is still unavailable at Shannon River at Dog Pool (Western Australia) following wildfire damage to the gauge in January.

Across Australia, rainfall was 23% below the long-term average. Areas where rainfall was above average include parts of Western Australia, northern South Australia, northwestern New South Wales, Tasmania, parts of northern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland, and in the Top End of the Northern Territory.

Climate influences

The ENSO Tracker was upgraded to EL NIÑO status on 12 May 2015.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. During El Niño events, we generally observe more streams with lower-than-average flows, and fewer with higher-than-average flows across eastern Australia. This tends to result in less water flowing into water storages during the traditional filling season, between June and October. Our understanding ENSO video provides more information on how El Niño impacts our climate and weather.

For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.

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