Additional Rainfall Forecast Information for Melbourne, Albury-Wodonga and Mildura

From September 21, rainfall information for the Melbourne, Albury-Wodonga and Mildura forecasts will be presented as chance of any rain and rainfall amount for day one of the forecast.

Chance of rain describes the likelihood of receiving a measurable amount of rain (>0.2mm) during the day at that location. For example, if the chance of rain for Melbourne is 30%, it means that on 3 out of 10 days with similar weather conditions rainfall will be measured in the Melbourne rain gauge.

The graphic illustrates that whilst there may be a 30% chance of rainfall, there is also a 70% chance of not receiving any rainfall at all.

Rainfall amount indicates the likely amount of rain in millimetres for the forecast period. Sometimes rain falls in a patchy pattern across an area with some locations receiving a heavy shower while an area nearby might miss out completely. On these days the rainfall range may be quite large, e.g. 5 to 30 mm. When steady rainfall is expected over a wide area, the range may be smaller, e.g. 10 to 15mm.

At this stage, only Melbourne, Mildura and Albury-Wodonga receive the chance of rain information. In the future, with improved forecasting techniques, the Bureau plans to extend this rainfall information to the rest of Victoria.

Example of rainfall forecast showing a 30% chance of any rain and 0 to 0.2mm of rainfall

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