Climate outlook for March to May
Climate outlook overview
- The autumn (March to May) climate outlook, issued 14 February 2019, indicates a drier than average season is likely for large parts of northern Australia. The rest of the country shows no strong tendency towards a wetter or drier than average autumn.
- Warmer than average days and nights are likely for almost all of Australia for autumn. For daytime temperatures, the chances of being warmer than median are very high, greater than 80% for most of the mainland.
- The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is a 50% chance of El Niño developing from autumn; this is double the normal chance. Details: Climate influences
Drier autumn likely for much of northern Australia
- Autumn is likely to be drier than average over the northern half of WA, the southern NT, and far western and eastern Queensland.
- In contrast, most of southern Australia shows no strong swing towards either a wetter or drier than average autumn. However, in southern, and particularly southeastern Australia, recent years have seen a decline in the average autumn rainfall.
- Historical outlook accuracy for March to May is moderate for most of the country but low across the WA interior and southwest, western Tasmania, and near the NSW-Queensland border. See map for details.
Warmer than average conditions likely to continue
- Warmer than average days and nights are likely for almost all of Australia for autumn. For daytime temperatures, the chances of being warmer than median are very high, greater than 80% for most of the mainland. These warm outlooks follow Australia's warmest December and January on record.
- Historical accuracy for March to May maximum temperatures is moderate to high across northern Australia, eastern Australia, and the WA coast, but low elsewhere. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for much of northern and southeastern Australia. See map for more details.
Climate influences
- The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is a 50% chance of El Niño developing from autumn; this is double the normal chance. El Niño events typically mean drier than usual autumns in southern Australia. Details: ENSO Wrap-Up
- The Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to remain neutral through autumn.
- Very warm waters in the Tasman Sea, and cooler than average waters off WA, may have some influence on weather patterns during autumn.
- While southern Australia shows little shift towards wetter or drier conditions, the past two to three decades have seen a decline in autumn rainfall. For example, from 1990, 24 of the 29 years have brought below average rainfall to southeast Australia (below the 1961-1990 average).
- In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
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