Climate outlook for March to May
Climate outlook overview
- The autumn (March to May) climate outlook, issued 28 February 2019, indicates a drier than average season is likely for the eastern States, the southern two-thirds of the NT and eastern SA. Inland western WA has a weak tendency towards a wetter than average season.
- Warmer than average autumn days and nights are very likely for almost all of Australia.
- The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is a 50% chance of El Niño developing; this is double the normal chance. See the Climate Influences section for more information.
Drier autumn likely for eastern half of Australia
- Autumn is likely to be drier than average over Queensland, NSW, Victoria, northern and eastern Tasmania, the southern two-thirds of the NT and eastern SA. In contrast, inland western WA is slightly more likely to be wetter than average.
- March is likely to be drier than average across Queensland, NSW, far eastern SA, most of Victoria and the southern two-thirds of the NT. Parts of northern Queensland have a greater than 80% chance of a drier than average month. Conversely, parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne in WA are likely to be wetter than normal.
- Historical outlook accuracy for March to May is moderate for most of the country but low across the southeast and interior of WA, western Tasmania, and near the NSW-Queensland border. See map for details.
Warmer than average autumn very likely
- Warmer than average autumn days and nights are very likely for almost all of Australia. Chances of being warmer than median for both days and nights are greater than 80% for most of the country. The warm outlooks follow Australia's warmest December and January on record. However, chances of warmer or cooler autumn nights are roughly equal in some parts of northeast Queensland.
- Historical accuracy for March to May maximum temperatures is moderate to high across most of northern and eastern Australia, but low across southern and central WA, most of SA, southern Victoria and northeast Tasmania. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for much of southern and western Australia. See map for more details.
Climate influences
- The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is a 50% chance of El Niño developing from autumn; this is double the normal chance. El Niño events typically mean drier than usual autumns in southern Australia. Details: ENSO Wrap-Up
- The Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to remain neutral through autumn.
- Average to cooler than average waters off WA may have some influence on weather patterns during autumn.
- The past two to three decades have seen a decline in autumn rainfall across southern Australia. For example, since 1990, 24 of the 29 years have had rainfall totals in southeast Australia below the historical (1961-1990) average.
- In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
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