Climate outlook for May to July

Issued 11 April 2019

Climate outlook overview

The May to July climate outlook, issued 11 April 2019, indicates a drier than average three months is likely for some parts of eastern Australia. Inland WA and scattered parts of the north are likely to be wetter. However, May is the start of the dry season in northern Australia, which means little or no rainfall is normal at these locations. The rest of the country shows no strong tendency towards a wetter or drier than average three months.
Warmer than average days and nights are likely for May to July. The chances of being warmer than median are very high (greater than 80%) for large parts of northern and eastern Australia for both days and nights.
The main climate drivers for Australia (e.g., El Niño/La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole) are neutral. However, the Bureau's climate model suggests there is a chance El Niño will develop in the coming months. If El Niño does develop, it would increase the chances of drier conditions in the south and east.

May to July is likely to be drier than average over some parts of eastern Australia, but wetter for parts of inland WA, and scattered parts of the northern Australian coastline. Most of the rest of the country shows no strong tendency towards a wetter or drier than average three months.
For May, some parts of the southwest and east are likely to be drier than average, while inland WA and parts of the far north are likely to be wetter. Most of the country has equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.
While both the monthly and three-monthly outlook shows wetter conditions are likely in the north, May is the start of the dry season in northern Australia, which means little or no rainfall is normal at these locations.
Historical outlook accuracy for May to July is moderate for most of the country but low across southeast Queensland and large parts of southern Australia. See map for details.

Warmer than average days are very likely for most of Australia for May to July.
Nights are also likely to be warmer than average overall, however, the forecast drier than average conditions could bring more cloud-free nights, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas.
Historical accuracy for May to July maximum temperatures is moderate to high across large parts of Australia, but low to very low over southern SA, western Victoria, eastern NSW, central Queensland and the Pilbara in WA. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for the northern half of the country and Tasmania, and low to very low elsewhere. See map for more details.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, but the Bureau's climate model suggests there is a chance El Niño will develop in the coming months. Eastern Australia typically experiences below average winter-spring rainfall during El Niño.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to remain neutral through the forecast period. This means the IOD has little influence on this outlook.
The Bureau's climate model also indicates that pressure over the Tasman Sea is likely to be higher than normal. This increases the chance of dry and warm weather over eastern Australia.
In addition to the natural drivers such as ENSO and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.

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