Climate outlook for November to February

Issued 10 October 2019

Climate outlook overview

Rainfall is likely to be below average across most of the country, excluding northern WA, for the remainder of October and November. The dry outlook for southern and northeastern Australia continues into December.
Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia for all outlook periods, with a spell of hot weather likely in mid-to-late October for most areas.
Nights are likely to be cooler than average for the remainder of October in the far north, and parts of the northeast and southeast during November. Elsewhere, nights are generally likely to be warmer than average.
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain the dominant climate driver for Australia until early summer.
A prolonged period of negative SAM (Southern Annular Mode) may also contribute to the dry and warm outlooks for eastern Australia during October and November.

Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of the country for the remainder of October and November.
However, northwest WA has roughly equal chances of being wetter or drier across most outlook periods, with a slightly increased chance of being wetter than average in December.
The drier outlook for southern and northeastern Australia continues into December with the remainder of the country having roughly equal chances of being wetter or drier than average.

Daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across Australia for the remainder of 2019 and early 2020.
A spell of warmer weather is likely during mid-to-late October for most areas, with daytime temperatures during 14-20 October forecast to be more than two degrees above average for much of the northwest extending across into western Queensland. For 21-27 October, daytime temperatures are likely to be more than two degrees above average for much of the west and south.
Nights are likely to be cooler than average in much of the far north for the remainder of October, but generally warmer than average for other areas.
In November, the northeast and southeast are likely to be cooler than average, with other regions likely to have warmer nights.
December to February nights are likely to be warmer nationwide.

The latest value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (+1.94 °C) was the strongest weekly value since at least 2001, and is forecast to remain strongly positive until at least the end of spring.
Typically, this means below average rainfall for much of central and southern Australia during spring, and warmer than average temperatures for the southern two thirds of Australia. This is consistent with the current outlook.
IOD events have little influence on Australian climate from December to April, meaning its contribution to the drier outlook should start to reduce in early summer. This is consistent with the outlooks beginning from December, which have fewer regions with drier conditions.
A prolonged weakly negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is expected to persist during October and November. A negative SAM in spring tends to bring drier conditions to parts of eastern Australia. It also increases the chance of spring heatwaves occurring across southern and eastern Australia.
Forecast warmer than average sea surface temperatures off the northern WA coast are likely contributing towards the increased chances of above average rainfall for northern WA.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain neutral until at least early 2020.
In addition to the natural drivers such as ENSO and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.

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