Climate outlook for February to May

Issued 30 January 2020

Climate outlook overview

The likelihood of a wetter or drier than average February to April are roughly equal for much of Australia. However, parts of northern WA and the northern Murray-Darling Basin have a slightly increased chance of being drier than average.
Rainfall for the week 3–9 February is likely to be above average across some parts of NSW currently affected by bushfire and drought.
Both daytime and overnight temperatures for February to April are likely to be above average across almost all of Australia except parts of the southwest and southern Tasmania.
With major climate drivers neutral, local or short-term climate drivers, such as sea surface temperatures around Australia, and active or break periods of the monsoon, are likely to have a greater influence on Australian rainfall and temperature patterns.

Rainfall for the week 3-9 February is likely to be above average for parts of eastern NSW, including some of the areas currently affected by bushfire and drought.
The chances of a wetter or drier than average February to April are roughly equal for large parts of Australia, however, some areas such as northern WA and parts of the northern Murray-Darling Basin have a slightly increased chance of being drier than average. In contrast, Cape York is likely to be wetter than average.
Recent rainfall has been beneficial for some drought and fire affected areas. However, several months of above average rainfall are needed to see a recovery from current long-term rainfall deficiencies.

Both daytime and overnight temperatures for February to April are likely to be warmer than average for almost all of Australia, with very high chances (greater than 80% chance) across much of the mainland.
March to May is also likely to see warmer than average days and nights for most of the country.
With warmer days and nights likely for the coming months, the chance of heatwaves occurring remains high.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are neutral and are likely to remain so until at least the end of the southern autumn.
With these major climate drivers neutral, local or short-term climate drivers such as ocean temperature patterns around Australia and active or break periods of the monsoon are likely to have a greater influence on Australian rainfall and temperature patterns.
Abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and around much of Australia may be contributing to some changes in weather patterns over the continent, while warm and dry soils—a legacy of Australia's warmest and driest year on record in 2019—are likely to be contributing to warmer than average temperatures.
Australia's temperature and rainfall variability is also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.4 °C since 1910, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–15% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.

Product code: IDCKOATCO2