Climate outlook for March to June

Issued 20 February 2020

Climate outlook overview

The likelihood of a wetter or drier than average autumn (March to May) is roughly equal (45–55% chance) for much of Australia. However, parts of southeast Queensland have a slightly increased chance of being drier than average for the season (60–65% chance), while parts of the far north and southwest Australia have a slightly increased chance of being wetter (60–70% chance).
Rainfall for the last week of February is likely to be below average across northwest Australia (greater than 70% chance) while some parts of in the east are likely have a wetter week.
Both days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across most of the country for autumn, although days have roughly equal chances of being above or below average in the south.
Major climate drivers, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral and are forecast to remain neutral through autumn. When these major climate drivers are neutral, widespread above or below average seasonal rainfall is less likely.

Rainfall for the week 24 February to 1 March is likely to be below average across northern WA and the northern and western NT (greater than 70% chance). Some parts of the east are likely to have a wetter week.
The rainfall outlook for March shows large areas of the southern mainland of Australia and parts of the tropical north have a slightly increased chance of being wetter than average (60–65% chance, higher chances in southwest WA and in part of the far north of the NT). However, the Pilbara coastline in WA is likely to have a drier month.
The chances of a wetter or drier than average autumn (March to May) are roughly equal for most of Australia (45–55% chance). However, parts of southeast Queensland have a slightly increased chance of being drier than average (60–65% chance), while the northern NT, northern Cape York, and southwest WA have a slightly increased chance of being wetter than average (60–70% chance).
While recent rainfall over parts of eastern Australia has eased the dry in many areas, drought continues. Several months of above average rainfall are required to replenish water storages and streamflows. Major climate drivers like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are neutral and forecast to remain neutral through autumn. When these major climate drivers are neutral, widespread above or below average seasonal rainfall is less likely.

Daytime temperatures for autumn (March to May) are likely to be above average across Australia, although days have roughly equal chances of being above or below average in the south.
Autumn night-time temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for virtually all of Australia, except the southern two-thirds of Tasmania. Nights are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be warmer over northern and western Australia.
April to June is also likely to see warmer than average days and nights for most of the country.
Climate change is likely influencing this temperature outlook. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.4 °C since 1910.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are neutral and are likely to remain neutral through the southern autumn.
Shorter-term drivers, like the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are also neutral and likely to remain neutral over the coming few weeks.
When these major climate drivers are neutral, we're less likely to see widespread, above or below average seasonal rainfall.
The western tropical Pacific Ocean is forecast to remain warmer than average which may mean moisture will be drawn away from Australia, reducing the influence of a warmer than normal Coral Sea, which generally increases the chance of wetter than normal conditions in eastern Australia.
Australia's temperature and rainfall variability is also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.4 °C since 1910, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–15% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
The Bureau's climate model includes the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD and SAM in its forecast.

Product code: IDCKOATCO2