Climate outlook for April to July
Climate outlook overview
- April is very likely to be wetter than average for most of Australia, except for parts of the north and on the east coast, seaward of the Great Dividing Range, which have roughly equal chances of being wetter or drier than average.
- Similarly, for the three months April to June, wetter than average conditions are likely for most of Australia, except for the north and east coasts and southern Tasmania, which have roughly equal chances of wetter or drier conditions.
- April to June days are likely to be warmer than average across northern and eastern Australia, but cooler across much of the southern mainland.
- Nights for April to June are very likely to be warmer than average nationwide.
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral and are forecast to remain neutral into winter, but the tropical ocean to the west of Australia is foreast to remain warmer than average and is likely to be the major influence on our climate over the coming season.
Wetter April to June for most of Australia
- April rainfall is very likely to be above average for most of Australia (60–80% chance across southern Australia and parts of inland eastern Australia, greater than 80% chance in central and northern WA and central Australia). Chances of a wetter or drier April are roughly equal across the eastern Top End of the NT, northern and eastern Queensland and much of the NSW coastline.
- Similarly, the three months April to June are likely to be wetter than average for most of Australia (60–80% chance across southern and inland eastern Australia, greater than 80% chance in central and northern WA, extending into the NT and SA). The likelihood of a wetter or drier April to June is roughly equal across the eastern Top End of the NT, northern Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, along the east coast of the mainland, and southern Tasmania.
- May to July is also likely to be wetter than average for much of western, central and southern Australia (mostly 60–75% chance).
- While recent rainfall over parts of eastern Australia has eased the dry in many areas, long-term rainfall deficiencies remain for many regions. Several months of above average rainfall may be required increase streamflows and replenish water storages. This outlook shows some possibility of further relief in the coming months.
Warmer April to June days for north and east; cooler for southern mainland Australia
- The fortnight of 5 to 18 April (which encompasses the Easter period) is likely to have cooler than average days across much of Australia, associated with the increased chance of more rainfall and cloud cover than normal. However, daytime temperatures are likely to be close to average for northeast Australia.
- Daytime temperatures for April to June are very likely to be above average across northern Australia, and along the NSW and Victorian east coast into Tasmania (greater than 80% chance for most areas). However, southern WA, SA, western and central NSW and western and central Victoria are likely to have cooler than average days.
- April to June night-time temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (mostly greater than 80% chance).
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are currently neutral. Climate models suggest they are likely to remain neutral until at least mid-year.
- The Southern Annual Mode (SAM) is forecast to remain neutral for much of the coming three weeks. At this time of the year, SAM has little influence on Australian rainfall.
- The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to weaken in the coming days as it enters regions typically favourable for rainfall over northern Australia. As a result, it may have only limited influence on Australian climate in the coming weeks.
- With several of Australia's major climate drivers neutral, other climate influences are affecting the climate of Australia. The outlook indicates a stronger north to south sea surface temperature gradient in the eastern Indian Ocean, with very much above average temperatures in the tropical regions of the Indian Ocean. This, combined with south-westerly winds over the mid-to-southern Indian Ocean, has been shown to increase the likelihood of northwest cloudbands. This increases the chance of wetter than average conditions across western, central and southern Australia.
- Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.4 °C since 1910, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–15% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
- The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our oceans, ice and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it includes the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO and SAM in its outlooks.
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