Climate outlook for June to September
Climate outlook overview
- Winter (June to August) is likely to be wetter than average for northeast SA, western NSW, and scattered parts of southern Queensland. However, coastal southeast SA, southwest Victoria and most of Tasmania are likely to be drier than average. For northern Australia it is now the dry season, which means rainfall totals are typically very low.
- The month of June is likely to be drier than average for scattered areas of the south.
- Winter days are very likely to be warmer than average across most of Australia, except southern SA, southwest NSW and western Victoria, which have roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler winter days.
- Winter nights are very likely to be warmer than average almost nationwide.
- To Australia's east, the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to cool over the winter months, establishing a La Niña-like pattern, while warmer than average waters are likely in the eastern Indian Ocean. In the shorter-term, higher pressure is likely to dominate southern Australia during the first half of June.
Wetter winter likely for parts of eastern Australia, drier for far southeast
- For the first half of June, most of WA, the southern NT, SA, NSW, Victoria and Tasmania are likely to be drier than average (mostly 60–75% chance). However, parts of northern Queensland are likely to have a wetter than average week (mostly 65–80% chance).
- With much of the first half of June likely to be drier, the month overall is likely to be drier than average for southern and far north WA, southern SA, and much of the NT, western and central NSW, Victoria and Tasmania (mostly 60–70% chance).
- Winter (June to August) is likely to be wetter than average for northeast SA, western NSW, and scattered parts of southern Queensland (mostly 60–65% chance). However, coastal southeast SA, southwest Victoria and most of Tasmania are likely to be drier than average (60–70% chance). Most of the rest of the country has roughly equal chances of being wetter or drier than average. Probabilities have eased slightly from previous outlooks due to the drier pattern in June.
- Once past June, wetter conditions are established. July to September is likely to be wetter than average for the southern half of Australia (60–70% chance). However, the far southwest and southeast have slightly lower chances.
- May marked the official start of the northern Australian dry season. Tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals during the dry season, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.
Warmer winter days and nights likely for most of Australia
- A warmer week is likely for most areas for 8 to 14 June, with much of the southern half of WA likely to be 2–4 degrees warmer than usual, and southern Queensland likely to be 2–3 degrees warmer than usual.
- Winter (June to August) days are very likely to be warmer than average across most of Australia (greater than 80% chance for the tropical north, mostly 60–80% in other parts). However, southern SA, southwest NSW and western Victoria have roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler winter days.
- Winter night-time temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (65–80% chance for southwest, central, and southeast Australia; greater than 80% chance elsewhere). However, southeast SA, southwest Victoria and northern Tasmania have roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than average nights.
Climate influences
- Warmth in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean has decreased over the past fortnight, related to higher than normal pressures over the southern Indian Ocean (directing more southerly flow in the east) and two tropical cyclones mixing deeper, cooler water to the surface. While sea surface temperatures remain warmer than average, their influence on the outlook has eased in recent weeks.
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to remain neutral over winter, though further cooling in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is expected, and a La Niña-like pattern (though possibly not reaching official threshold magnitude) is expected to emerge. Some models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met by the end of winter. The longer-term wetter outlook for parts of Australia may reflect this influence. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at INACTIVE, but if more cooling occurs will be lifted to La Niña WATCH.
- The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is forecast to be positive for the next fortnight, with higher pressure likely over Australia during this time. In winter, a positive SAM typically means less rainfall for southwest WA, southern Victoria and Tasmania. The positive SAM, and higher pressure across Australia, are the dominant influences on the drier June outlook.
- Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.4 °C since 1910, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
- The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our oceans, ice and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it includes the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO and SAM in its outlooks.
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