Climate outlook for March to June
Climate outlook overview
- March to May (autumn) rainfall is likely to be above average for large parts of western and eastern Australia.
- Maximum temperatures for autumn are likely to be warmer than average for most of northern Australia, the west and south-west coast of WA, the east coast of QLD, and Tasmania. Conversely, days are likely to be cooler than average for parts of southern Australia
- Minimum temperatures for autumn are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, except for parts of SA and WA.
- The current La Niña is forecast to end during autumn. La Niña typically increases the likelihood of above average rainfall across eastern Australia during early autumn, and this influence is expected to continue as the event decays.
Wetter autumn likely for much of the west and east of Australia
- Autumn is likely to be wetter than average across most of Western Australia, South Australia, southern Queensland, New South Wales, northern Victoria, and eastern Tasmania.
- However, the Kimberley in WA, most of the NT away from Arnhem Land, western and northern Queensland, southern Victoria and western Tasmania show no significant shift towards a wetter or drier three months. Odds shift to a drier than average autumn in the Gulf Country.
- For March, wetter than average conditions are very likely (chance of exceeding median is more than 70%) over the southern two-thirds of WA, south-east SA and NSW. It is likely to be drier than average across the northern tropics during March.
- The fortnight of 8 to 21 March is likely to be drier than average (chance of exceeding median is less than 40%) across the Cape York Peninsula. Large areas from the north-west of WA, through Central Australia, to the east coast of NSW are likely to have a wetter than average fortnight.
Warmer autumn days likely for much of the north, and Tasmania; warmer nights across the south-west, north and east of Australia
- For the fortnight of 8 to 21 March, maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the NT, Queensland, the west coast of WA and the north-east coast of NSW. Much of southern WA and southern SA are likely to be cooler than average.
- Minimum temperatures for the fortnight 8 to 21 March are likely to be warmer than average across most of WA away from the south-east, the NT, most of Queensland away from the east coast, NSW, eastern Victoria and Tasmania. Parts of southern SA are likely to have cooler nights.
- Mean maximum temperatures for autumn (March to May) are likely to be higher than average (greater than 60% chance) for the northern tropics, the east coast of Queensland, the south-west coast of WA, and Tasmania. Cooler than average maximum temperatures are likely (greater than 60% chance) for parts of southern Queensland, NSW, northern Victoria, parts of SA and southern inland WA.
- Autumn minimum temperatures are likely to be higher than average across most of Australia except for parts of southern WA, and western and central SA. Chances of warmer nights are greater than 80% for the northern tropics, eastern Queensland, along the west coast of WA, and Tasmania.
Climate influences
- La Niña remains active but is past its peak. Model outlooks indicate the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will return to neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during autumn. La Niña typically increases the likelihood of above average rainfall across eastern Australia during early autumn. A neutral ENSO has little influence on Australian climate, although the influence of the current La Niña is expected to continue as the event decays.
- The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is neutral and expected to be neutral or weakly positive to neutral for the coming fortnight. When the SAM is neutral, it has little influence on Australian climate.
- The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak. It is unlikely to have a significant influence on northern Australia's weather this week.
- Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are warmer than average around much of the north, west and southeast of Australia. These warm SSTs are likely to be contributing to above-average temperature outlooks for adjacent land areas.
- Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C since 1910, while recent decades have seen increased rainfall during the northern wet season (October–April), with more high intensity and short duration rainfall events. See State of the Climate for more details.
- The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its outlooks.
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