Climate outlook for April to July
Climate outlook overview
- April to June rainfall is likely to be above average for large parts of northern and eastern Australia, however this signal is mostly from April. May shows a mostly neutral signal, with some areas of the south-west and north likely to be drier than average.
- Maximum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for northern Queensland, western WA, and Tasmania. April is likely to be cooler than average for north-west and much of eastern Australia, with warmer days likely for much of the western and north-eastern Australian coastlines, and most of Tasmania.
- Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, except broad areas of central Australia.
- La Niña is nearing its end but may have a lingering influence on rainfall patterns into April.
End of March and April likely to be wetter than average for parts of northern and eastern Australia
- April to June is likely to be wetter than average (chance of exceeding median is more than 60%) across the Kimberley in WA, the northern half of the NT, northern and eastern Queensland, and eastern parts of NSW and Victoria. Remaining areas show no significant shift towards a wetter or drier three months (chances of exceeding median is close to 50%).
- The 3-month wet signal is dominated by the April outlook, with April likely to be wetter than average across a similar area, including northern WA, the northern and central NT, most of Queensland except the far south-west, and patchy areas of NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, and south-east SA. May, on the other hand, is likely to be a drier month for parts of northern and south-west Australia with the remainder of the country having roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.
- The fortnight of 22 March to 4 April is likely to be wetter than average (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%) over the eastern half of Australia extending into the far north of WA. Parts of the far north, and down the east coast are very likely to be wetter than average (greater than 80% chance). For the remainder of WA, south-west NT and eastern SA there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than usual fortnight.
Warmer April to June days likely for the north-east, western WA and Tasmania; warmer nights except in the interior
- Maximum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, western WA, Tasmania, and the far coastline of southeast Australia (greater than 60% chance).
- April is likely to be cooler than average for parts of northern WA, the northern and eastern NT, eastern SA, and most of Queensland, NSW and Victoria away from the coastline (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%). Warmer days likely for much of the western and north-eastern Australian coastlines, and most of Tas (greater than 60% chance).
- Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (greater than 60% chance). However, south-east WA, the southern NT, most of SA, south-west Queensland and north-west NSW have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months.
Climate influences
- La Niña is nearing its end with most oceanic indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) now at neutral levels. However, some atmospheric indicators remain at La Niña levels, meaning a possible lingering influence on the rainfall patterns into April. Model outlooks, which look at the oceanic component of the ENSO, indicate neutral ENSO conditions for the months ahead. A neutral ENSO has little influence on Australian climate.
- The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is likely to be neutral for the coming fortnight. When the SAM is neutral, it has little influence on Australian climate.
- The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the African region but is forecast to move eastwards and weaken. It is unlikely to have a significant influence on northern Australia's weather this fortnight.
- Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C since 1910, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. There has also been increased rainfall during the northern wet season (October–April), with more high intensity and short duration rainfall events. See State of the Climate for more details.
- The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its outlooks.
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