Climate outlook for April to July
Climate outlook overview
- April to June rainfall is likely to be above average for the tropical north of Australia. However, this signal is mostly from April which also indicates a wetter than average month is likely for parts of south-east Australia. May shows a mostly neutral signal, with some areas of the south-west and north likely to be drier than average.
- Maximum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for the north-east coast, western WA, and Tasmania, but cooler than average for the Top End of the NT and north-west NSW.
- April days are likely to be cooler than average for the north-west and eastern mainland Australia, with warmer days likely for much of the western, north-eastern, and Tasmanian coastlines.
- Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia, except broad areas of the Australian interior.
- La Niña is almost over but may have a lingering influence on rainfall patterns into April.
April likely to be wetter than average for parts of northern and south-eastern Australia
- April to June is likely to be wetter than average (chance of exceeding median is more than 60%) across the tropical north of Australia, extending from northern WA across to northern Queensland. Remaining areas mostly show no significant shift towards a wetter or drier three months (chances of exceeding median is close to 50%).
- The 3-month wet signal is dominated by the April outlook, with April likely to be wetter than average across a similar area, including northern parts of WA, the NT, and Queensland, and also in the south-east across Tasmania, southeast SA, and patchy areas of Victoria. May, on the other hand, is likely to be a drier month for parts of northern and south-west Australia with the remainder of the country having roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.
- The fortnight of 29 March to 11 April is likely to be wetter than average (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%) over western and northern WA, the northern half of the NT, northern Queensland and most of Tasmania. Parts of the northern NT and Cape York Peninsula in Queensland are very likely to be wetter than average (greater than 80% chance). Parts of central Australia and western NSW extending into southern Queensland are likely to have a drier than average fortnight.
Warmer April–June days likely for west, north-east coast, and Tasmania; warmer nights except in the interior
- Maximum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for much of western WA, Tasmania, and parts of the Queensland, Victorian and SA coastlines (greater than 60% chance).
- April days are likely to be cooler than average for northern WA, the NT, eastern SA, and across Queensland, NSW and Victoria away from the coastline (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%). Warmer days are likely for much of the western and north-eastern Australian coastlines, and the Tasmanian coastline (greater than 60% chance).
- Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (greater than 60% chance). However, south-east WA, the southern NT, most of SA, and southern NSW have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months.
Climate influences
- La Niña is almost over, with most oceanic indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) now at neutral levels. However, La Niña-like conditions remain in the atmosphere, meaning a possible lingering influence on the rainfall patterns into April. Model outlooks, which look at the oceanic component of the ENSO, indicate neutral ENSO conditions for the months ahead. A neutral ENSO has little influence on Australian climate.
- The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is likely to be neutral for the coming fortnight. When the SAM is neutral, it has little influence on Australian climate.
- The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to move into the Australian region near the end of March. When the MJO is in the Australian region, above average cloudiness and rainfall typically occurs across northern Australia. The wetter outlook for April across the tropical north is likely at least partly associated with the influence of the MJO in the region.
- Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C since 1910, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. There has also been increased rainfall during the northern wet season (October–April), with more high intensity and short duration rainfall events. See State of the Climate for more details.
- The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its outlooks.
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