Climate outlook for June to September
Climate outlook overview
- Winter (June to August) rainfall likely to be above average for much of northern, central, and eastern Australia extending into SA. Parts of western WA are likely to have below average winter rainfall. The outlook for June is very similar to winter, with slightly lower chances of a drier month in western WA.
- Maximum temperatures for winter are likely to be above average for northern, south-western, and south-eastern Australia.
- June maximum temperatures are likely to be above average for northern and eastern Australia, and far south-west WA, with central parts of WA likely to be cooler than average.
- Minimum temperatures for winter are very likely to be above average for most of Australia; parts of western WA show a more neutral outlook.
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is neutral. Large parts of the eastern Indian Ocean are warmer than average, which can favour above average rainfall for parts of Australia.
Above average winter rainfall for much of northern, central and eastern Australia, but drier in western WA
- Rainfall for winter (June to August) is likely to be above average for northern WA, the NT, most of Queensland, NSW and SA, and northern parts of Victoria and Tasmania (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Winter rainfall for western WA is likely to be below average (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%).
- The outlook pattern for June is similar to winter, with slightly lower chances of a drier month in western WA.
- July to September also shows a similar outlook pattern to winter, with slightly lower chances of above average rainfall in most areas.
- It should be noted that the northern Australian dry season commenced in May. This means tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.
Warmer days for northern tropics and southern Australia; warmer nights almost nationwide
- Maximum temperatures for winter are likely to be warmer than average for tropical northern Australia, southern WA, south-east SA, eastern and southern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance), with most of these areas very likely to have warmer winter days (greater than 80% chance). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than average winter days (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
- June maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for northern and south-west WA, the Top End of the NT, northern and eastern Queensland, eastern NSW, south-east SA, Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance), with central parts of WA likely to be cooler than average (chances of exceeding the median are less than 40%).
- Minimum temperatures for winter are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (chances are greater than 80%); parts of western WA show a more neutral outlook.
- Likewise, minimum temperatures for June, July, and July to September are each likely to be warmer than average almost nationwide except for western parts of WA.
Climate influences
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral. Model outlooks predict neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist at least through to the start of spring. Neutral ENSO has little influence on Australian weather and climate and means the effects of other climate drivers may dominate this season.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The Bureau's climate outlook model indicates negative IOD conditions for most of winter, although it should be noted that outlooks for the IOD currently have lower skill at this time of year. An IOD event is declared when the index reflects a positive or negative state for at least 8 weeks.
- More generally, above average Indian Ocean sea surface temperature patterns outside of the IOD region may be providing more conducive conditions for rainfall across some parts of Australia.
- The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is forecast to remain negative for the coming week before easing to neutral levels. During the winter months, negative SAM typically acts to increase rainfall over south-west and south-east Australia and reduce rainfall over parts of eastern Australia.
- Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C for the 1910–2019 period, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
- The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its outlooks.
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