Climate outlook for June to September
Climate outlook overview
- Winter (June to August) rainfall very likely to be above average for much of northern, central, and eastern Australia extending into SA. Parts of west coastal WA are likely to have below average winter rainfall.
- The outlook for June is very similar to winter.
- Maximum temperatures for winter are likely to be above average for northern, south-western, and south-eastern Australia and below average in a band extending across central Australia.
- June maximum temperatures are likely to be above average for northern Australia and Tasmania, but most of WA, central and eastern inland parts likely to be cooler than average.
- Minimum temperatures for winter are very likely to be above average for most of Australia; parts of western WA show a more neutral outlook. The pattern is similar for June minimum
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is neutral. Large parts of the eastern Indian Ocean are warmer than average, which can favour above average rainfall for parts of Australia.
Above average winter rainfall for much of northern, central, and eastern Australia but drier in parts of western WA
- Rainfall for winter (June to August) is likely to be above average for northern half of WA, most of the NT, Queensland away from the far north, NSW and SA, and northern parts of Victoria (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Many parts are very likely to have above average rainfall (greater than 80% chance).
- Winter rainfall for south-west WA is likely to be below average (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%). The outlook pattern for June is similar to winter, but northern and eastern Tasmania is likely to have above average June rainfall.
- July to September also shows a similar outlook pattern to winter, though with lower chances of above average rainfall in most areas, except inland southern Queensland and inland northern NSW, where the chance of exceeding median is greater than 80%.
- It should be noted that the northern Australian dry season commenced in May. This means tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.
Warmer winter days for the northern tropics, the south-west and south-east of Australia; warmer nights almost nationwide
- Maximum temperatures for winter are likely to be warmer than average for tropical northern Australia, south-west WA and south-east Australia, including Tasmania, with most of these areas very likely to have warmer winter days (greater than 80% chance). Areas in a band from north-west WA, through central Australia to the east coast are likely to be cooler than average for winter (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%).
- Maximum temperatures for June show a similar pattern to winter in tropical northern Australia (greater than 80% chance), but the chances of warmer than average days is less likely in south-west WA and south-east Australia (chance of exceeding the median is greater than 60%).
- Minimum temperatures for winter are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (chances are greater than 80%); small parts of western WA show a more neutral outlook.
- Minimum temperatures for June are very likely to be warmer than average almost nationwide, except for western parts of WA, parts of the east coast and south-east Australia, that show a more neutral outlook.
Climate influences
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral. All models predict neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist at least through to the start of spring. Neutral ENSO has little influence on Australian weather and climate and means the effects of other climate drivers may dominate this season.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The Bureau's climate outlook model indicates negative IOD conditions for most of winter, although outlooks for the IOD have lower skill at this time of year. An IOD event is declared when the index reflects a positive or negative state for at least 8 weeks, but it can still influence rainfall over the Australian region as conditions evolve.
- More generally, above average Indian Ocean sea surface temperature patterns outside of the IOD region may also be providing more conducive conditions for rainfall across some parts of Australia.
- The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index has been negative over the past week, and has recently returned to neutral levels. It is forecast to remain neutral for the coming fortnight, meaning it will have little influence on Australian climate.
- Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C for the 1910–2019 period, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
- The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its outlooks.
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