Climate outlook for December to March

Climate outlook overview

  • December to February rainfall is likely to be above median for parts of eastern Australia, with highest chances for eastern Queensland.
  • December to February maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for most of Australia, with below median daytime temperatures likely for eastern NSW.
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for December to February for much of Australia away from the east (1.5 to 3.0 times the usual chance).
  • Minimum temperatures for December to February are very likely to be warmer than median for most of Australia, with south-eastern WA and south-western SA having roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than median nights.
  • The La Niña in the Pacific Ocean and the positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) state are likely influencing the above median rainfall outlooks.

Wetter than median summer likely for parts of eastern Australia

  • December to February rainfall is likely to be above median for northern and eastern Queensland, eastern and central NSW, western Victoria, and eastern Tasmania (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Chances are highest for eastern Queensland, where chances of above median summer rainfall are 70–75% in patches. The rest of Australia has roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
  • December rainfall is similar to the summer rainfall pattern, and is likely to be above median for eastern parts of Queensland and NSW, as well as scattered parts of south-west WA, Victoria and eastern Tasmania. Conversely, large parts of northern and central WA and small patches of the central NT, and western Tasmania are likely to have below median rainfall. The rest of Australia has roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall.
  • The week of 29 November to 5 December is likely to be drier than median for most of the country, with the western Pilbara and far north Queensland likely to be wetter than median.
  • Past accuracy for December to February rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, shifting to low accuracy along the WA border, the southern NT, southern parts of SA, along the Queensland-NSW border, and parts of Tasmania.

Warm summer days for much of the country, with warmer nights very likely

  • December to February maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for much of WA, the NT, much of Queensland, northern and eastern SA, western NSW, western and central Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance). Below median daytime temperatures are likely for eastern NSW extending into eastern Victoria (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%).
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for December to February over most of WA, the NT, western and central Queensland, most of SA, and western parts of NSW, Victoria and Tasmania (1.5 to 3.0 times the usual chance). In any given outlook period, the chance of unusually high or low maximum temperatures is around 20%. This means that a 40% chance of unusually warm conditions is twice the normal likelihood, while 60% is three times
  • Minimum temperatures for December to February are likely to be warmer than median for most of Australia (chances are greater than 60%), with most areas very likely (greater than 80% chance). However, south-eastern WA and south-western SA have roughly equal chances of above or below median overnight temperatures (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for December to February over most of Australia except south-east WA and north-east NSW (1.5 to more 4.0 times the usual chance), with the highest likelihood for northern Australia.
  • Past accuracy for December to February maximum temperatures is moderate to very high for almost all of Australia, with moderate to low accuracy for the southern NT. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across the southern half of the country and parts of the far north, with moderate to low accuracy for far northern WA, extending into central parts of the NT and across through central parts of Queensland.

Climate influences

  • La Niña has become established in the tropical Pacific. Climate models indicate La Niña thresholds are likely to be maintained until late summer. This pattern is likely to be contributing to the wetter than median outlooks for eastern Australia.
  • The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely near its end, as forecast by models and in line with its typical seasonal cycle. A neutral IOD has little influence on Australian climate.
  • The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has generally been positive for several weeks. It is expected to remain at positive levels until the end of the year. A positive SAM at this time of year typically brings above average rainfall to parts of eastern Australia, but below average rainfall for western Tasmania.
  • Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C for the 1910–2019 period. Rainfall across northern Australia during its wet season (October–April) has increased since the late 1990s. In recent decades there has been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.
  • The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its outlooks.

Product code: IDCKOATCO2