Climate outlook for March to June

Issued 24 February 2022

Climate outlook overview

March to May (autumn) rainfall is likely to be above median for large parts of Australia. Much of south-western and north-eastern Australia have roughly equal chances of above or below median autumn rainfall.
March to May maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for the tropical north, parts of the south-east, and the west coast. Only a small area of the NSW coastline is likely to have below median temperatures.
Minimum temperatures for March to May are likely to be warmer than median Australia wide.
Climate influences include the La Niña in the Pacific Ocean.

March to May (autumn) rainfall is likely to be above median for central and northern parts of WA, most of the NT, much of SA, southern Queensland, most of NSW, Victoria and eastern Tasmania (chance of exceeding median is approximately 60–70%). Much of south-western Australia and north-eastern Australia have roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for March to May in much of south-east Queensland, north-east NSW, and scattered areas across south-east Australia (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance). In any given outlook period, the chance of unusually high or low rainfall is around 20%. This means that a 40% chance of unusually wet conditions is twice the normal likelihood, while 60% is three times.
Past accuracy for March to May rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, shifting to low accuracy for parts of central and southern WA.

March to May (autumn) maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for west coast and far northern WA, the northern NT, most of Queensland, south-east SA, south-west NSW, western and central Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance). Below median temperatures are likely for a very small area of eastern NSW (less than 40% chance of above median). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
Minimum temperatures for March to May are likely to be warmer than median Australia wide (chances are greater than 60%).
There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for March to May over virtually all of Australia (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance). The highest likelihoods are across far northern Australia and Tasmania. In any given outlook period, the chance of unusually high or low minimum temperatures is around 20%. This means that a 40% chance of unusually warm conditions is twice the normal likelihood, while 60% is three times.
Past accuracy for March to May maximum temperatures is high to very high for almost all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across most of Australia, with low accuracy in southern WA.

A mature La Niña event remains active in the tropical Pacific, with observations and climate models suggesting the event is past its peak. Outlooks indicate the La Niña is likely to end around mid-autumn 2022. While this event has peaked, it will continue to contribute to the wetter than median outlooks for parts of northern and eastern Australia.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently neutral and forecast to remain so for the next three weeks. A neutral SAM has little influence on Australian climate.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain neutral for the coming months. The IOD typically has little influence on climate from December to April due to the influence of the monsoon.
Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Rainfall across northern Australia during its wet season (October–April) has increased since the late 1990s. In recent decades there has been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.
The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its outlooks.

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