Climate outlook for April to July

Climate outlook overview

  • April to June rainfall is likely to be above median for northern and eastern Australia, with a small area of western Tasmania likely to be below median. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall.
  • April to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for western, northern and southern parts of Australia. Below median temperatures are likely for parts of the east coast.
  • Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median across virtually all of Australia.
  • La Niña and other localised drivers are likely to be influencing this outlook.

Above median April to June rainfall likely for northern and eastern Australia

  • April to June rainfall is likely to be above median for northern WA, the NT, Queensland, eastern NSW and scattered areas of Victoria (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%), increasing to very likely (chances of exceeding median is greater than 80%) for far northern Western Australia, northern NT and northern Queensland. Below median rainfall is likely for a small area of western Tasmania (chance of exceeding median is less than 40%). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June across the northern half of Australia (up to 4 times the usual chance) and eastern NSW (1.5 times the usual chance). However, it should be noted that in tropical areas the wet season is drawing to a close, meaning average rainfall at this time of the year is starting to decrease.
  • The April outlook shows above median rainfall is likely across the northern half of Australia, NSW and eastern Victoria. Roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall are likely for the remainder of the country.
  • The May outlook shows a wetter month is likely for small scattered parts of the north, and a drier month is likely for parts of the south-west and near the western NSW-Queensland border, but most areas have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier month.
  • Past accuracy for April to June rainfall is high for most areas of Australia, moderate in central to eastern Australia, with low accuracy for eastern Tasmania.

Warmer April to June days for west, north, and south, warmer nights for most areas

  • April to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for coastal areas of WA, the northern NT, northern Queensland, southern SA, most of Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance) with the highest chances over north-east Australia and Tasmania. Below median maximum temperatures are likely for far eastern parts of NSW and into southern Queensland (chance of exceeding median is less than 40%). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June over southern and far northern WA, the northern NT, northern and central Queensland, far south-east SA, southern Victoria, and Tasmania (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance), with the highest chances in north-east Australia and western Tasmania.
  • Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median almost Australia wide (chances are greater than 60%), with most areas except the inland south very likely (chances are greater than 80%).
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of Australia (1.5 to greater than 4.0 times the usual chance). The highest likelihoods are across far northern Australia and Tasmania.
  • Past accuracy for April to June maximum temperatures is high to very high for almost all of Australia, with moderate accuracy in a band stretching through central WA and across western and central SA. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across northern Australia, grading to low to very low accuracy across south-western and south-eastern parts of the mainland. Tasmania has moderate accuracy.

Climate influences

  • La Niña remains active in the tropical Pacific but is gradually weakening. Outlooks indicate a return to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions is likely late in the southern hemisphere autumn. Despite weakening, La Niña will continue to contribute to wetter than median conditions for parts of northern and eastern Australia.
  • Above average sea surface temperatures, particularly around northern Australia, are also likely to be influencing this outlook.
  • The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is expected to return to neutral levels in the coming days and to remain neutral for most of the coming fortnight. A neutral SAM has little influence on Australian climate.
  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on climate from December to April due to the influence of the monsoon. Outlooks indicate a neutral IOD is most likely for the remainder of autumn. Model outlooks have low accuracy beyond this time.
  • Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades, while rainfall across northern Australia during its wet season (October–April) has increased. In recent decades there has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.
  • The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its outlooks.

Product code: IDCKOATCO2