Climate outlook for February to May

Long-range forecast overview

• For February to April, much of the country has close to equal chances of above and below median rainfall, but with a chance (60 to 70%) of below median rainfall on the west coast and some parts of inland Australia. Above median rainfall is moderately likely (60 to 70% chance) for Tasmania, the eastern Top End, and northern Cape York Peninsula.
• February to April maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for large parts of Western Australia, southern Queensland, and Tasmania, and moderately likely (60 to 70% chance) for parts of the northern and southern coasts and central Australia. There is a chance of below median maximum temperatures (65 to 75% chance) for areas of coastal New South Wales and eastern Victoria.
• February to April minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (greater than 70% chance) to be warmer than median across most of the country, but chances are close to average for areas of inland southern mainland Australia.
• This forecast reflects the status and outlook for several climate drivers, including La Niña in decline.

Drier than average February for north-west and inland areas, wetter for Tasmania

• For February, there is a moderate to high chance of below median rainfall across north-west to central Australia (northern half of WA except northern Kimberley, central to southern NT, pastoral SA, western Qld), and a moderate chance in central NSW and the inland slopes. Above median rainfall is likely (60 to 75% chance) for Tasmania, with a moderate chance (60 to 65% chance) for small areas of south-eastern Queensland, parts of Cape York Peninsula, and the eastern Top End.
• For February to April, most of the country has close to equal chances of above and below median rainfall, although there are moderate chances (60 to 70% chance) of below median rainfall along the west coast and throughout pockets of inland Australia in all mainland states. Above median rainfall is moderately likely (60 to 70% chance) for the eastern Top End, northern Cape York Peninsula, and Tasmania.
• Past accuracy of February to April long-range forecasts for chance of above median rainfall has generally been moderate to high, with some areas of moderate to low skill, notable along the west coast of Western Australia.

Warmer than average February to April days and nights likely for much of Australia

• For February, above median maximum temperatures are moderately likely (60 to 75% chance) for large areas of Western Australia, parts of the western to central Northern Territory and Top End, a pocket of north-west Queensland, and western Tasmania. Below median maximum temperatures are likely (greater than 60% chance) for parts of eastern Tasmania, South Australia, New South Wales, and Victoria; the chance rises to highly likely (greater than 75%) for much of eastern New South Wales and eastern Victoria.
• For February, minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above median for the northern tropics, Tasmania, and some parts of the coastal fringe in Victoria and Western Australia. Below median minimum temperatures during February are likely (greater than 60% chance) for much of the northern interior and south-east of Western Australia, the south of the Northern Territory, inland southern and south-western Queensland, New South Wales, northern and north-eastern Victoria, and most of South Australia; the chance is highest over inland northern New South Wales.
• February to April maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for large parts of Western Australia, southern Queensland, and Tasmania, and moderately likely (60 to 70% chance) for parts of the northern and southern coasts and central Australia. There is a chance of below median maximum temperatures (65 to 75% chance) for the areas of coastal New South Wales and eastern Victoria.
• February to April minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (greater than 70% chance) to be warmer than median across most of the country, but there is neither a strong chance or warmer or cooler than median minima in inland NSW, pastoral SA, and south-eastern WA.
• Past accuracy of the February to April chances of above median maximum temperature long-range forecasts has been moderate to high across most of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy has been moderate to high for most of Australia, with moderate to low skill in a few pockets of tropical northern Australia.

Climate influences

Long-range forecasts reflect several significant climate influences. These include:

• La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific but oceanic indicators have weakened from their peak in spring 2022. Long-range forecasts suggest tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures will return to ENSO-neutral in February 2023; this is slightly earlier than typical. La Niña events typically increase the chance of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during summer and early autumn. Even as La Niña weakens, it can continue to influence global weather and climate.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is positive, but is anticipated to ease over the coming fortnight and then remain neutral over the remainder of February. During summer, a positive SAM typically increases the chance of above average rainfall for eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, and north-east Tasmania, and below average rainfall for western Tasmania.
• Warmer than average sea surface temperatures persist to the south of Australia from the eastern Great Australian Bight to waters east of New Zealand, while generally weak warm anomalies persist across the west and north of the Maritime Continent. Warmer waters around Australia, especially in the tropics, can result in greater evaporation, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall.
• The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in the eastern Indian Ocean and is moderate to strong in strength. Most models expect it to move into the Maritime Continent and towards the western Pacific in the coming week, with a possible decline in strength. While active over the Maritime Continent, the MJO may increase rainfall over northern Australia and may also lead to an increased chance of a monsoon burst returning to the northern Australia.
• Longer-term trends: Australia's climate has warmed by ~1.47 °C in the period 1910–2021, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. In recent decades, there has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia during their wet season.

The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its long-range forecasts.