Climate outlook for March to June

Long-range forecast overview

• For March to May, below median rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for most of Australia away from the south-east coast.
• March to May maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for most of Australia except southern parts of Cape York Peninsula and central parts of the New South Wales coast.
• March to May minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for western, far south-east and far northern parts of Australia, while below median temperatures are moderately likely (around 60% chance) for areas of central Australia and the Kimberley.
• This forecast reflects the status and outlook for several climate drivers, including a declining La Niña.

Drier than average autumn for most of Australia away from the south-east coast

• For March, below median rainfall is likely (60 to 70% chance) for parts of the northern tropics and a small area of Western Australia's South West Land Division. Above median rainfall is moderately likely (around 60% chance) for south coast New South Wales but most of Australia has close to equal chances of above or below median rainfall.
• For March to May, below median rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for most of Australia. Southern and eastern areas of Victoria, New South Wales east of the Great Dividing Range, the Southeast district of Queensland and parts of the northern tropics have close to equal chances of above or below median rainfall.
• Past accuracy of March to May long-range forecasts for chance of above median rainfall has generally been moderate to high for eastern and northern Australia, with moderate to low skill for some inland areas and parts of Western Australia.

Warmer than average autumn days for most of Australia

• For March, above median maximum temperatures are likely (60 to 80% chance) for most of Australia apart from the New South Wales coast and the Australian Alps where chances of above or below median temperatures are close to equal. Below median maximum temperatures are likely (60 to 70% chance) around the Cairns coast of Queensland and the Hunter coast of New South Wales.
• For March above median minimum temperatures are likely (60 to 80% chance) for most of Australia. Inland parts of the northern tropics, north-east New South Wales and the Southeast district of Queensland have close to equal chances of above or below median temperatures.
• March to May maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for most of Australia except southern parts of Cape York Peninsula and central parts of the New South Wales coast where there are close to equal chances of above or below median temperatures.
• March to May minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for western and central areas of Western Australia, far northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, south-eastern parts of Queensland, eastern and southern New South Wales, Victoria and the far south-east of South Australia. Below median temperatures are moderately likely (around 60% chance) for areas of central Australia and the Kimberley.
• Past accuracy of the March to May chances of above median maximum temperature long-range forecasts has been moderate to high across most of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy has been moderate to high for most of Australia, with moderate to low skill for parts of Western Australia and Queensland.

Climate influences

Long-range forecasts reflect several significant climate influences. These include:

• La Niña continues to weaken in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Oceanic indicators, including sea surface temperatures (SSTs), have weakened to ENSO-neutral values, though some atmospheric indicators remain La Niña-like. All models anticipate SSTs in the central Pacific Ocean will warm further, but remain at neutral levels (neither La Niña nor El Niño) until at least mid-autumn. Even as La Niña weakens, it can continue to influence global weather and climate.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is generally neutral (neither positive nor negative) over the coming weeks.
• Warmer than average sea surface temperatures persist in an area around Tasmania, south-east Australia, and New Zealand; around the west coast and north-west of Australia; and parts of the Coral Sea. Warmer waters around Australia, especially in the tropics, can result in greater evaporation, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall.
• The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak, but is forecast to strengthen over the western Pacific Ocean in the coming week. While in the western Pacific it will likely support ongoing monsoonal activity across northern Australia. Hence, conditions are likely to remain favourable for near- to above-average rainfall over the northern Australia in the coming fortnight.
• Longer-term trends: Australia's climate has warmed by ~1.47 °C in the period 1910–2021, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. In recent decades, there has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia during their wet season. In recent decades, in the absence of strong 'wet' climate drivers, autumn rainfall across southern Australia has generally been drier than average.

The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its long-range forecasts.