Climate outlook for March to June

Long-range forecast overview

• For March to May, below median rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for most of Australia away from the south-east coast.
• March to May maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for most of Australia except central parts of the New South Wales coast and eastern Victoria.
• March to May minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for south-western, far south-eastern, and far northern parts of Australia, while below median temperatures are likely (60 to 70% chance) for areas of central Australia, the central and eastern interior of South Australia and the Kimberley.
• This forecast reflects the status and outlook for several climate drivers, including a La Niña nearing its end and ENSO likely being neutral during autumn.

Drier than average autumn for most of Australia away from the south-east coast

• For March, below median rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for parts of northern and eastern Western Australia, parts of South Australia, most of the Northern Territory, Queensland apart from south-east parts and northern and western New South Wales.
• For March to May, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia. Central and eastern parts of Victoria, New South Wales east of the Great Dividing Range and Tasmania apart from its north-east, have close to equal chances of above or below median rainfall.
• Past accuracy of March to May long-range forecasts for chance of above median rainfall has generally been moderate to high for eastern and northern Australia, with moderate to low skill for some inland areas and parts of Western Australia.

Warmer than average autumn days for most of Australia

• For March, above median maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia apart from central and southern parts of the New South Wales coast and eastern and southern Victoria where below median maximum temperatures are likely (60 to 75% chance).
• For March above median minimum temperatures are likely (60 to 80% chance) for western and far northern parts of the mainland, Tasmania and central coastal parts of Queensland. Below median temperatures are likely (60 to 70% chance) for the south-east interior of the mainland.
• March to May maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for most of Australia except central parts of the New South Wales coast and eastern Victoria where there are close to equal chances of above or below median temperatures.
• March to May minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for south-western parts of the mainland, far northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, south-eastern and central coastal parts of Queensland, New South Wales east of the Great Dividing Range, southern Victoria, Tasmania and the far south-east of South Australia. Below median temperatures are likely (60 to 70% chance) for areas of central Australia, the central and eastern interior of South Australia and the Kimberley.
• Past accuracy of the March to May chances of above median maximum temperature long-range forecasts has been moderate to high across most of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy has been moderate to high for most of Australia, with moderate to low skill for parts of Western Australia and Queensland.

Climate influences

Long-range forecasts reflect several significant climate influences. These include:

• La Niña is nearing its end in the Pacific Ocean. Oceanic indicators, including sea surface temperatures (SSTs), have returned to ENSO-neutral values and atmospheric indicators are weakening towards neutral values. All but one of the surveyed international climate models suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific (including NINO3.4) will remain neutral through autumn; one model is neutral in March and April but touches on El Niño thresholds in May. ENSO outlooks extending beyond autumn should be viewed with caution as models typically have lower forecast accuracy at this time of year.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is neutral and is expected to remain neutral over the coming weeks.
• Warmer than average sea surface temperatures persist in an area around Tasmania, south-east Australia, and New Zealand; around the west coast and north-west of Australia; and parts of the Coral Sea. Warmer waters around Australia, especially in the tropics, can result in greater evaporation, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall.
• The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak. However, the MJO is forecast to strengthen and re-emerge over the western Pacific during the coming fortnight. This may initially contribute to increased monsoonal activity across northern Australia and the south-west Pacific, but as it progresses eastward it will increasingly favour drier conditions for tropical Australia.
• Longer-term trends: Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C in the period 1910–2021, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10 to 20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades, especially in the absence of strong 'wet' climate driver.

The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its long-range forecasts.