Climate outlook for November to February

Long-range forecast overview

• November to January rainfall is likely to be below median for much of western, northern and southern Australia, with small areas of northern NSW having a slightly increased chance of above median rainfall.
• November to January maximum temperatures are at least twice as likely to be unusually warm for almost all of Australia.
• November to January minimum temperatures are very likely to be above median for all of Australia.
• The long-range forecast is influenced by several factors, including El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and record warm oceans globally.

Below median rainfall for November to January likely for western, northern and southern Australia.

• For November, below median rainfall is likely (60% to 80% chance) for southern and western WA, north-eastern NT, most of SA, northern, central and eastern Queensland, Tasmania and Victoria, with small parts of the tropical north very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be below median.
• November to January rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below median for much of Australia, while small areas of NSW, including the Upper Western, North West Slopes and Plains, and Riverina districts, and southern Queensland are more likely (60 to 80% chance) to have above median rainfall.
• Past accuracy of November to January long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, decreasing to low to very low for eastern and interior WA, most of the NT, and southern and western SA.

Warmer November to January days and nights for almost all of Australia

• For November to January, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.
• For November to January, most of Australia is at least 2.5 times more likely than normal to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times more likely for central and western WA. Unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.
• For November, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia, excluding SA's Flinders district and southern areas of the North West Pastoral district, parts of Arnhem and Carpentaria districts in the NT, and most of northern and eastern Queensland, where there is a close to equal chance of below or above median minimum temperatures. Below median minimum temperatures are likely (60% to 80% chance) for a region surrounding Queensland's North Tropical Coast and Tablelands district.
• For November to January, above median minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia, apart from south-east SA, south-western Victoria, western WA, and northern coastal regions of Queensland, where above median minimum temperatures are likely (60% to 80% chance).
• For November to January, broad areas of Australia are at least 2 times more likely than normal to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times as likely for parts of central and northern WA; north-western NT; most of Queensland away from coastal regions; and northern and western NSW. Unusually high minimum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.

Past accuracy of the November to January long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across almost all of Australia, excluding areas of the northern Kimberley in WA, the central NT, and western Queensland where accuracy drops to low to very low. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of Australia, dropping to low to very low for northern WA, and central NT across to central and eastern Queensland.

Climate influences

The long-range forecast reflects known impacts from several significant climate drivers:

• El Niño is underway. Models indicate some further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely, with sea surface temperatures remaining above El Niño thresholds until at least the end of the southern hemisphere summer 2023–24. El Niño typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for eastern Australia.
• A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway. All models indicate that it will persist until at least the end of spring. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia.
• When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently strongly positive. Forecasts indicate a return to neutral in the coming week.
• Australia's climate has warmed by ~1.48 °C since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.

The Bureau's climate model simulates the physics of atmospheric, oceanic, ice, and land surface processes and uses millions of observations from satellites as well as in-situ instrumentation on land and at sea. These simulations enable the model to account for the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and SAM in its long-range forecasts.