Climate outlook for November to February

Long-range forecast overview

• November to January rainfall is likely to be below average across much of western, southern and north-eastern Australia.
• November to January maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average for most of Australia.
• November to January maximum and minimum temperatures are at least 2.5 times more likely than normal to be unusually high for most of Australia. Unusually high temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.
• The long-range forecast is influenced by several factors, including the El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events currently underway, and record warm oceans globally.

Drier than median November to January outlook for western, southern, and north-eastern Australia.

• For November, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60 to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia, except for south-west Queensland; most of NSW; and east Gippsland in Victoria, where chances of above or below median rainfall are roughly equal.
• Compared to the month of November, the three months of November to January show the below median rainfall signal is less widespread. November to January rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below median for much of western, southern and north-eastern Australia.
• Past accuracy of November to January long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, decreasing to low to very low for parts of central Australia and areas to the north of the Great Australian Bight.

Warmer November to January days and nights for almost all of Australia

• For November, and November to January, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.
• For November to January, most of Australia is at least 2.5 as likely as normal to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times as likely for central and western WA, and parts of northern and eastern Queensland. Unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.
• For November, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60 to 80% chance) for much of Australia, except for most of SA, western Victoria, and Queensland's north, north-west, and central coastal areas.  
• For November to January, above median minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia, excluding southern SA, western VIC and areas of north-eastern Queensland where the chance of above or below median temperatures is roughly equal.
• For November to January, broad areas of Australia are at least 2 times more likely than normal to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times as likely for north-eastern NSW; parts of central and northern WA; the Top End of the NT; and central Queensland, away from coastal regions. Unusually high minimum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.
• Past accuracy of the November to January long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across almost all of Australia, excluding the central NT, where it has been low. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of Australia but decreases to low to very low for the northern Kimberley in WA, central NT, and a small area of central Queensland.

Climate influences

The long-range forecast reflects known impacts from several significant climate drivers:

• El Niño is underway in the tropical Pacific. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to exceed El Niño thresholds. Models indicate some further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely, with SSTs remaining above El Niño thresholds into the early southern hemisphere autumn, 2024. During spring, El Niño typically leads to reduced rainfall for eastern Australia and warmer than average days for the southern two-thirds of Australia. In summer, it typically increases the likelihood of drier conditions for parts of north-east Australia, and warmer days across much of the eastern half of the country.  
• A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway. All models indicate that it will continue into at least December. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia.
• When a positive IOD and an El Niño occur concurrently, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently neutral. Forecasts indicate it will remain mostly neutral in the coming week.
• Australia's climate has warmed by ~1.48 °C since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.

The Bureau's climate model simulates the physics of atmospheric, oceanic, ice, and land surface processes and uses millions of observations from satellites as well as in-situ instrumentation on land and at sea. These simulations enable the model to account for the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and SAM in its long-range forecasts.