Climate outlook for November to February

Long-range forecast overview

• November to January rainfall is likely to be below average across much of western, southern and northern Australia.
• November to January maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average for almost all of Australia.
• November to January maximum and minimum temperatures are at least 2.5 times more likely than normal to be unusually high for much of Australia. Unusually high temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.
• The long-range forecast is influenced by several factors, including the active El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and record warm oceans globally.

Drier than median November to January outlook for western, southern and northern Australia.

• For November, below average rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of northern, western, central and southern Australia.
• November to January rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) below median for northern, western and southern Australia.
• Past accuracy of November to January long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, decreasing to low to very low for parts of central Australia and areas to the north of the Great Australian Bight.

Warmer November to January days and nights for most of Australia

• For November, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for most of northern and western Australia, decreasing to likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of the rest of Australia except the far south-east coast of the mainland.
• November to January maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be above median for most of Australia, excluding areas in the south-east of the mainland and Tasmania's west, where maximum temperatures are likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above median.
• For November to January, most of Australia is at least 2.5 more likely to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times as likely for central and western WA and parts of northern NT. Unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.
• For November, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of WA, western NT, south-eastern Queensland, eastern NSW, southern and eastern Victoria, and Tasmania. Below median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely across areas of the north-east NT, northern Queensland, and south-eastern SA.
• November to January minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above median for most of Australia, excluding areas of south-eastern SA and the central coasts of Queensland.
• Past accuracy of the November to January long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across almost all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy has been high to very high for most of Australia but decreases to low to very low for the northern Kimberley in WA, central NT, and a small area of central Queensland.

Climate influences

The long-range forecast reflects known impacts from several significant climate drivers:

• El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain above El Niño thresholds. Models indicate some further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely, with SSTs remaining above El Niño thresholds into the early southern hemisphere autumn 2024. During spring, El Niño typically leads to reduced rainfall for eastern Australia and warmer than average days for the southern two-thirds of Australia. In summer, typically only parts of north-east Australia see an increased likelihood of drier conditions, with warmer days across much of the eastern half of the country.  
• The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues. All models indicate that it will likely persist into early December. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive and is forecast to return to neutral this week.
• Australia's climate has warmed by ~1.48 °C since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.

The Bureau's climate model simulates the physics of atmospheric, oceanic, ice, and land surface processes and uses millions of observations from satellites as well as in-situ instrumentation on land and at sea. These simulations enable the model to account for the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and SAM in its long-range forecasts.