Climate outlook for March to June

Long-range forecast overview

• March to May rainfall is likely to be below median for much of northern, eastern and south-western Australia.
• March to May maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to very likely to be above median for almost all of Australia.
• March to May maximum temperatures are at least 3 times more likely than normal to be unusually high for most of the northern half of Australia, western WA, and northeast Tasmania.
• March to May minimum temperatures are at least 3 times more likely than normal to be unusually high for much of western and northern Australia.
• The long-range forecast is influenced by several factors, including record-warm oceans globally and a weakening El Niño. For more details, see the Climate influences

Below median March to May rainfall for much of northern, eastern, and south-western Australia

• For March, rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below median for much of Pilbara coastline of WA, much of the Queensland central coast, Tasmania, and a strip extending from the central NT into western Queensland and north-east SA, down western and central NSW into western and central Victoria.
• For March to May, below median rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) across much of northern and eastern Australia, and the far south-west of WA. The forecast model favours neither above or below-median rainfall (providing roughly even chances for both) across much of southern and central WA, SA, western Tasmania and much of the eastern coastline of Australia.
• For March to May, unusually low rainfall is at least twice as likely as usual for central parts of the NT, extending into western Queensland. Unusually low rainfall is defined as the driest 20% of March to May periods from 1981 to 2018.
• Past accuracy of March to May long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall is mostly moderate to high for large areas of Australia, but low to very low for southern and northern inland WA.

Warmer March to May days and nights likely for Australia

• For March, above median maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia, excluding eastern Victoria and south-east NSW.
• For March to May, above median maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for all of Australia.
• For March, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) Australia wide, excluding some southern parts of SA, central and northern Victoria, extending into the Riverina District in NSW.
• For March to May, above median minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.
• For March to May, much of the northern half of Australia, western WA and north-east of Tasmania are at least 3 times more likely than normal to experience unusually high maximum temperatures. Elsewhere, unusually high temperatures are more than 2 times more likely than normal, except for south-east SA, most of Victoria and south-east NSW. Unusually high temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of March to May periods from 1981 to 2018.
• For March to May, much of western and northern Australia is at least 3 times more likely than normal to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, with the exception of the southern mainland where the chance of unusually high temperatures is mostly 2 times more likely than normal. Unusually high temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of March to May periods from 1981 to 2018.
• Past accuracy of the March to May long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high for almost all of Australia. Past accuracy for the chance of above median minimum temperature has generally been moderate to high, excluding southern WA, where accuracy has been low.

Climate influences

The long-range forecast reflects known impacts from several significant climate influences:

• El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Model forecasts and observations indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive. Forecasts indicate SAM will return to neutral in the coming days and remain so for the coming fortnight. Neutral SAM has little influence on Australian rainfall patterns.
• The long-range forecast implicitly includes the influence of the global long-term warming trend.
• Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were highest on record for all respective months between April 2023 and January 2024.
• Australia's climate has warmed by 1.50 ± 0.23°C between 1910 and 2023, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. In recent decades, there has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia during the wet season.

The Bureau's climate model simulates the physics of atmospheric, oceanic, ice and land surface processes, and uses millions of observations from satellites as well as in-situ instrumentation on land and at sea. These simulations enable the model to account for the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and SAM in its long-range forecasts.