Climate outlook for June to September

Long-range forecast overview

• Winter days and nights are very likely to be warmer than average across Australia, with a high chance of both days and nights being in the highest 20% of historical temperatures.
• For most of Australia, there is no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall for winter. The forecast suggests above average rainfall is likely over parts of the west, some central southern areas of the mainland and Queensland's North Tropical Coast.
• Rainfall for parts of eastern Australia is likely to be below average in June, while in July and August, rainfall for parts of the interior is likely to be above average.

Rainfall—Summary

Large parts of Australia are likely to see rainfall that is typical for the June to August period. Above average rainfall is likely for parts of the west and some central southern areas

May to September is the northern Australian dry season. This means tropical northern Australia typically receives very low rainfall during this time (large areas receive less than 25 mm for the season), and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the average.

June

• For much of Australia, there is no strong signal towards above average or below average rainfall for the month, however below average June rainfall is likely (60 to 70% chance) for parts of eastern Australia.

June to August

• For much of Australia, including areas that are highly populated, there is no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall for June to August, which means the typical range of winter rainfall is the best guide. This includes a typical seasonal chance of unusually high or low rainfall.
• Parts of the west of Western Australia and some central southern areas of the mainland, as well as Queensland's North Tropical Coast are likely (60 to 75% chance) to receive above average winter rainfall, with a slightly increased chance of unusually high rainfall. However, for the June to August period, average rainfall can be as little as 50–200mm for some of these areas.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer June to August days and nights are very likely across Australia

June to August

• June to August maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be above average across Australia.
• For June to August, there is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures across the continent, with 4 times the normal likelihood across much of eastern, southern and far northern Australia. Unusually high maximum temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of June to August days between 1981 and 2018.
• Large areas of the country are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to have unusually high minimum temperatures during June to August. Unusually high minimum temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of June to August nights between 1981 and 2018.

Climate influences

The Bureau's climate model simulates the physics of atmospheric, oceanic, ice and land surface processes, and uses millions of observations from satellites as well as in-situ instrumentation on land and at sea. These simulations enable the model to account for the influence of climate change and natural climate factors like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in its long-range forecasts.

Monitoring of current ocean and atmosphere climate conditions is presented below for general information:

• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.
• The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña Watch. A shift to La Niña Watch does not guarantee that La Niña will develop, only that there are some signs it may develop later in the year. A La Niña Watch has historically led to a La Niña event about 50% of the time later in the year, with a neutral state also occurring in a similar proportion of years.
• Climate models suggest that ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024. Note that early signs of La Niña are most relevant to the climate of the tropical Pacific; the long-range forecast for Australian rainfall and temperature provides better guidance for Australian climate.
• Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been warmest on record for each month between April 2023 and April 2024, with May 2024 SSTs on track to be warmer than May 2023.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The most recent 4 weeks have seen the IOD index within neutral thresholds, with the latest week just below the positive IOD threshold (+0.40 °C). Climate models suggest positive IOD development is possible during the southern hemisphere winter. However, model accuracy has historically been low at this time of year, meaning outlooks beyond June should be viewed with caution.
• The current pattern of warmth in global sea surface temperatures is unlike historical patterns. This is likely to impact the ability to predict future developments of climate influences such as ENSO and IOD based solely on historic relationships between sea surface temperatures and these events.